2024-03-19 03:18:28
Morgan Stanley raised its forecast for the price of Brent crude in the third quarter of this year by $10 per barrel to $90, indicating the possibility of a decline in the gap between supply and demand due to OPEC+ production cuts and a decline in Russia’s oil production following drone attacks on its refineries.
Morgan Stanley reduced its expectations for OPEC and Russia supplies during the second and third quarters of the year by 200 to 300 thousand barrels per day, as it expects a limited deficit in the second quarter, before it rises during the third quarter.
The bank also raised its expectations for the price of Brent crude in the first quarter to $85 per barrel from $82.5 in previous expectations, to $87.5 in the second quarter from $82.5, and to $85 per barrel in the fourth quarter from $80.
Brent crude oil oscillated below $86 per barrel on Monday. Prices received support in conjunction with Ukraine’s escalation of its attacks on Russian oil infrastructure since the beginning of the year, in an attempt to obstruct the Russian army by striking several large oil refineries.
Earlier this month, the OPEC+ alliance, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, agreed to extend the voluntary cut in oil production of 2.2 million barrels per day into the second quarter.
Morgan Stanley maintained its forecast for oil demand growth of 1.5 million barrels per day this year, driven by increased demand for jet fuel and petrochemicals, as well as increased demand from China and India.
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