The migration crisis in Cuba has reached unprecedented levels, with more than one million people leaving the country in the past two years, the head of the country’s National Statistics Office reported during a recent session of the National Assembly. This figure represents approximately 10 percent of Cuba’s total population between 2022 and 2023.
Demographic impact.
According to the data presented, Cuba’s population decreased from 11,181,595 people at the end of 2021 to 10,559,68 at the end of 2023.
Juan Carlos Alfonso Fraga, head of the National Office of Statistics and Information, said that the emigration of 1,011,269 Cubans was the main factor in this significant population reduction, along with a high number of deaths (405,512) and a low birth rate (284,892 births).
Context and causes
The mass exodus of Cubans has been driven by a severe economic crisis and increasing government repression. Reports by the Miami Herald and independent Cuban media had already warned about this situation, and official figures now confirm the magnitude of the crisis.
Most of the emigrants have arrived in the United States, representing the largest wave of migration in Cuban history.
Immigration statistics
U.S. immigration data shows that 645,122 Cubans sought asylum at the Mexican border and through a parole program established by the Joe Biden administration between October 2021 and June 2024.
The surge surpasses all previous waves since 1959, including the Freedom Flights of the 1960s and 1970s, the Mariel boatlift in 1980 and the rafter crisis in 1994, according to immigration expert Jorge Duany of Florida International University.
Just over 8 million?
Professor Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos of the University of Havana estimates that Cuba’s population could have been reduced by 18 percent, reaching 8.62 million people between 2022 and 2023. Alfonso Fraga mentioned that the new definition of “effective residence,” which considers those who spend at least 181 days a year on the island, has allowed these more precise figures to be obtained.
Fraga also noted that of the emigrants, around 800,000 were between 15 and 59 years old, which will significantly impact Cuba’s workforce and social assistance programs. The island’s current population has fallen below 10 million.
Economic situation
The National Assembly also addressed the country’s dire economic situation. Alexis Rodríguez Pérez, from the Ministry of Agriculture, reported that beef and pork production has plummeted.
Cuba produced just 15,200 tons of beef in the first half of the year, compared to 172,300 tons in 2022. Pork production was even worse, with just 3,800 tons in the first half of this year.
Conclusion
The economic crisis and mass emigration are leading Cuba to a critical situation. Although the government attributes the crisis to US sanctions, the COVID-19 pandemic and high international prices, even officials and parliamentarians acknowledge the failures of government policies.
The lack of concrete plans to reverse the economic situation is causing concern among the population, who fear that the announced measures could make things worse.
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