Deaths from antimicrobial resistance will increase steadily in the coming decades and this increase is expected to be almost 70% by 2050 compared to 2022. According to a study published in the journal “The Lancet”, it is estimated that by 2050 more than 39 millions of people around the world could die from antibiotic-resistant infections.
This is the first global analysis of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) trends, conducted as part of the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance program. The study covers people of all ages in 204 countries and regions.
It was estimated that more than one million people died as a result of antimicrobial resistance worldwide each year in the period 1990-2021. AMR deaths increased the most in five global regions: West Sub-Saharan Africa, Tropical Latin America, North America, Southeast Asia, and South Asia. Over the same period, AMR deaths fell by 50% in children under the age of five, a decline that coincided with significant improvements in the provision of infection prevention and control measures among infants and young children, such as vaccination programmes. However, deaths increased by more than 80% in people aged 70 and over, due to a rapidly aging population and greater vulnerability of the elderly to infection. These trends are predicted to continue in the coming decades.
The study estimates that 1.91 million people could die as a direct result of AMR in 2050, an increase of nearly 70% compared to 2022. During the same period, the number of deaths in which AMR bacteria play a role is estimated to increase almost 75%, from 4.71 million in 2021 to 8.22 million.
Estimates show that improved access to healthcare and antibiotics could save a total of 92 million lives between 2025 and 2050. The researchers highlight the vital need for interventions such as infection prevention, vaccination, minimizing inappropriate antibiotic use and research for new antibiotics to reduce the number of deaths from AMR.
Finally, they note that the lack of data for some low- or middle-income areas highlights the need for improved data collection, which requires investment in infrastructure.
Source: RES-MPE
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