Kansas State was tipped to finish last in the Big 12 before the season, but the pairing of Markquis Nowell and Keyontae Johnson lifted the team to third place in the NCAA Tournament.
The Wildcats kick off their tournament run by taking on Big Sky champion Montana State, who are competing in the NCAA Tournament for the second straight time. Can the Bobcats do better in 2023 after dropping 34 first-round points last year to fellow Big 12 opponent Texas Tech?
Here are the odds for this first-round encounter:
Montana State vs. Kansas State odds, spread and total
Montana State vs. Kansas State pronostic et choix
Although the Big 12 was the best conference in college basketball this season, it also leads to many inflated rankings when considering the strength of the program. Take Kansas State, for example, which ranks 52nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 19th in adjusted defensive efficiency. However, the raw numbers are worrying. The team is 139th in raw offensive efficiency and 38th in defensive efficiency.
Although the team has been battle tested, the numbers show they may not be as highly ranked as one might think, making them set to disappoint punters as a big favourite.
They face a Montana State team that is elite on the defensive side of the ball and can put pressure on the No. 3 seed. Kansas State’s turnover issues are a big concern in this game, the team is 299th in turnover percentage, which will be amplified against the Bobcats defense which is in the top 75 in the nation to force the TOs.
Additionally, Danny Sprinkle’s group is physical, going to the free throw line in the national top 5 and shooting 76% of their free throws, the 32nd best mark in the nation. Kansas State is not very successful in this area, sending its opponents to the line at 65th nationally.
Finally, is Kansas State overvalued due to home success? The team registers the seventh biggest drop when it leaves the “Little Apple” of Manhattan, Kansas, according to Haslametrics.
The Bobcats entered the NCAA Tournament last year and were defeated by Big 12 opponent Texas Tech. I think this experienced group will avoid a blow and surprise an overrated Kansas State team.
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The odds of the games are refreshed periodically and are subject to change.