• The baht fluctuated within an appreciating range during the last week of the year. In spite of the dollar will recover from time to time according to the increase in US bond yields But the baht still receives benefits from the news that China prepares to gradually open the country. and foreign net buying of Thai stocks and bonds.
• The SET Index rebounded following the buying pressure of foreign investors. Responding to the news of China preparing to open the country and the trend of the Thai economy that continues to recover
Summary of the movement of the baht
The baht moved volatilely in an appreciating range in the last week of 2022. The baht and most regional currencies appreciated along with the yuan amid positive signs following China lifted quarantine measures for travelers from overseas. In addition, the baht is supported by the direction of foreign capital. which returned to have a net buy position in both the stock market and Thai bonds. However, the strengthening framework of the baht moderated partly during the week. according to the recovery of the dollar and US bond yield This continues to benefit from the trend of the Fed raising interest rates.
On Friday, December 30, 2022, the baht closed the market at 34.56 baht per dollar. Compared to the level of 34.73 baht per dollar. On the previous Friday (December 23) for the investment portfolio status of foreign investors between December 26-30, 2022, foreign investors bought net Thai shares of 19,559 million baht and had Net status. Inflows into the Thai bond market 18,570 million baht (net buy 18,645 million baht, but with expired bonds 75 million baht)
For the overall picture in 2022, the baht weakened by regarding 3.3% to 34.56 baht per dollar (as of December 30, 2022) from the end of 2021 at 33.41 baht per dollar. The pressure on the baht’s depreciation was mostly in the first 10 months of 2022, mainly from the appreciation of the US dollar. According to the direction of tightening monetary policy by accelerating the Fed’s interest rate hike, however, the baht began to gradually strengthen back during November-December. 2022 following the Fed began to signal a slowdown in the size of the rate hike. In addition, there is additional support from the hope that China gradually opens up the country.
Next week (2-6 Jan. 2023), Kasikorn Bank looks at the movement of the baht at the level of 34.00-34.80 baht per dollar. While the Kasikorn Research Center assesses important factors to monitor, namely the inflation rate in December. 65 of Thailand Foreign capital direction Covid situation in China and the movement of Asian currencies. While the key US economic numbers are non-farm payroll numbers. unemployment rate Private sector employment data, PMI and ISM indexes, manufacturing and service sectors in December. Number of weekly unemployment benefits and Fed meeting notes In addition, the market is still waiting to follow the December inflation numbers. of the eurozone and the manufacturing and service sector PMI in December. of China, Eurozone and England as well.
Summary of movements in the Thai stock market
The Thai stock market jumped more than 50 points in the last week of the year. The SET Index rebounded since the beginning of the week. according to foreign stock markets This was driven by news reports regarding China’s preparations to open up the country in early 2023, the Bank of Thailand’s economic report. which also reflects the trend of continuous recovery together with the buying power of foreign investors Such positive factors boosted buying in all sectors this week. Technology stocks were the biggest gains on buying pressure from an electronics maker on its specific issues. Trading was active on the last working day of the year before the New Year holiday.
On Friday (December 30), the SET index closed at 1,668.66 points, up 3.16% from the end of last week. While the average daily trading value was 51,478.98 million baht, an increase of 8.97% from the previous week, while the mai index increased 4.05% to close at 584.16 points.
As for the overall picture in 2022, the SET Index rose 0.67% to close at the end of 2022 at 1,668.66 points from 1,657.62 points at the end of 2021, with Thai stocks swinging downward in the first half of the year. There is a negative factor from the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy. Russo-Ukrainian War Outbreak of omikron subspecies As well as lockdowns in many Chinese cities, however, Thai stocks have gradually recovered since mid-July. There are positive factors from the trend of the Thai economy that gradually recovers. A slowdown signaled the Fed’s rate hike following US inflation slowed and additional support came late in the year from news of China’s preparations to open up the country.
For the next week (2-6 Jan. 2023), Kasikorn Securities Company Limited sees that the Thai stock index has support at 1,650 and 1,635 points, while resistance is at 1,680 and 1,700 points, respectively. The Kasikorn Research Center assesses important factors that must be monitored, including inflation in December. 65 of Thailand Foreign capital direction The COVID situation in China, including plans to receive Chinese tourists Important US economic data include PMI and ISM indexes, manufacturing and service sectors. Nonfarm Employment Numbers Unemployment rate in Dec. and Fed meeting notes While other foreign factors include the Consumer Price Index (preliminary) and the Eurozone December Consumer Confidence Index, as well as the December PMI for the Eurozone, Japan and China.
