Unless there is some currently unthinkable gimmick, Iran does not have many options available to punish Israel for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in its homeland on July 31. Neither Khamenei nor his allies have a military tool that can afford to worry Israel in a conventional confrontation of the type with which Putin has engaged Ukraine, so to speak. The call to arms of terrorism, the kind attributable to the Shiite confession, does not seem to be a viable path if the punishment is to be of a magnitude equal to the affront suffered: the operational capacity of the armed groups of the axis of resistance does not seem to be of a level sufficient to strike targets whose emblematic nature is comparable to the affront suffered. All that remains is what everyone is hypothesizing and what Israel fears: a large-scale air attack using missiles and drones. A remake of the one carried out on April 13, perhaps correcting what went wrong then, provided that the Iranians have learned the right lessons from that episode.
Rockets, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, drones: these should be the weapons systems with which Israel’s air defense will have to measure itself once again in a second “stress test” perhaps of greater proportions, from more diversified directions and with a better calculated concentration of time. Once again, warning, or in this case the lack of warning, will not play a decisive role, it is safe to bet that the Israeli system is already on maximum alert regardless. If anything, every day that passes allows Israel to develop particularly complex reaction mechanisms, also because they are integrated with the devices of other friendly countries, the United States first and foremost and perhaps even the British, Saudi Arabia and some other Arab country in the area that in one way or another will contribute to strengthening the defense shield. The sighting of penetrating vehicles, of hostile radar tracks, will thus be able to count on a vast series of sensors whose data will flow into a single panorama, in an air picture continuously updated and transmitted in real time to the various allied users. In this sense, of particular, perhaps unique, operational utility will be the data provided by the Israeli flying radars, the Caew (Conformal Airborne Early Warning), means of extraordinary effectiveness capable of seeing any object moving and at any altitude when its speed exceeds 40 km/h. And which will be in flight 24 hours a day, covering 360 degrees of possible targets, transmitting the data automatically to all other users and also carrying out the command functions of the overall defense operation.
The engagement of hostile raiders will be entrusted to the Iron Dome, an extraordinary system that has already given excellent proof of itself and that will be supported by other systems distributed across the territory as well as probably by the support of other friendly assets whose range of action is useful to neutralize the Iranian incursions and those of its allies. In ordinary times such a deployment of forces would shield the airspace from any type of threat; and yet, in the case of concentration of attacks in wisely scanned times, of distribution of offensive tasks to whoever possesses a suitable means over 360 degrees and of use of a range of systems different in performance and operational characteristics, some cracks could be caused, together with serious, albeit limited and temporary, problems for an excellent defense system such as the Israeli one. What is perhaps most worrying is the appearance on the scene of military confrontation of alliances of purpose, some overt, almost automatic, others still in the shadows, others still contained in official declarations more or less prudent or biased, but which, with the persistence of animosities and unresolved reasons, could trigger an expansion of the conflict towards outcomes that are difficult to govern.
#Missiles #Drones #Israel #Photocopy #April #Tempo
2024-08-06 08:01:00
