2023-07-25 11:04:15
On July 27, the second edition of the Russia-Africa summit opens in Saint Petersburg, dedicated to strengthening partnerships with the continent. France 24 analyzes the stakes of this oh so strategic meeting for Moscow.
It is presented as a “major event” for Russian-African relations. The second Russia-Africa summit, dedicated to deepening ties between Moscow and the ccontinent, will take place on the 27th and 28th July To Saint PETERSBOURG.
After a first date in 2019 To Sotchithis new meeting aims to strengthen partnerships in the political, security, economic, scientific and even cultural fields..
In a new development, the Economic Forum organized within the framework of the summit now includes a humanitarian component, supposed toe embody the diversification of the partnership desired by Moscow and its desire for “long-term development”.
In view of this summit, Russia has multiplied, in recent months, messages of support for Africa as well as diplomatic missions. At the beginning of 2023, its Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergei Lavrov, led two tours in quick successions African.
Yet, behind the visits and speeches, trade remains weak between Moscow and the continent. While the war in Ukraine is bogged down and Western sanctions are weakening Russia’s economy, its real capacity for engagement with Africa is questionable.
Arms diplomacy
Among the areas of cooperation between Russia and Africa, the armament sector is probably the one that has caused the most ink to flow. In recent years, Moscow has announced the strengthening of its military partnerships with many countries including Cameroon, Ethiopia, South Africa, the Central African Republic and even Mali.
These agreements are far from new. At the time of independence, the USSR had invested in this area, supplying arms to many African countries. Partnerships put on hold following the fall of the Soviet bloc, which Moscow has undertaken to reactivate over the past two decades. At the same time, the militiaWagner has extended its presence in the Central African Republic, Mali, Sudan and Libya in recent years.
Between 2018 and 2022, Russia overtook China as the top arms exporter in sub-Saharan Africa, according to theStockholm International Peace Research Institutefrom 21 % to 26 % market share.
Nevertheless, according to the same report, arms deliveries to Africa represent only a small share of Russian arms exports (12 % in 2022) whose overall volume has also experienced a significant decline in recent years and more with the war in Ukraine.
“Military exports to Africa are not the most significant for Russia, neither in terms of technological level nor in terms of foreign exchange earnings, although they constitute one of the vectors of Russian influence in the region” underlines Julien Vercueil, economist specializing in Russia and vice-president of the National Institute of Oriental Languages and Civilizations (Inalco).
An analysis shared by Maxime Ricard, researcher specializing in West Africa at the Strategic Research Institute of the Military School (Irsem). “Russian-wide, these deliveries remain relatively small, but they are of strategic interest for Russia’s influence in Africa. By supporting political elites with little regard for human rights, they have an important political dimension because they contribute to the strengthening of authoritarian regimes. For the leaders of states like Mali or Burkina Faso, the military partnership with Russia is a big issue, especially since they asked for the withdrawal of French forces”.
Read alsoTen years of Serval: how France went from being a hero to being an outcast
In this context, the rebellion of the leader of Wagner, Evguéni Prigojine, who had started a march towards Moscow at the end of June, finally abortede, attracted particular attention. Sergei Lavrov then promised that the work of Wagner’s “instructors” “present in Mali and the Central African Republic” would “Of course continue”.
The Wheat Battle
In addition to the security domain, Russia also maintains an important agricultural partnership with the continent, of which it is the leading supplier of wheat in the world. The Russia-Africa forum comes at a time when Moscow has just withdrawn from the agreement allowing the export of Ukrainian cereals through the Black Sea, whose l’ON says it is essential to balance prices and avoid a global food crisis.
Russia is calling for an easing of the financial sanctions which “hinder” its international trade in cereals but also, and above all, its exports of fertilizers and agricultural equipment.
Russia assured that it was ready to offer its cereals free of charge to the African countries which need it most, specifying that this proposal would be discussed during the summit, which includes a section on the food sovereignty of the continent.
“Wheat imports pose an ideological problem for Africa, because it is unacceptable that it remains dependent on third countries for food, 60 years following independence” analyzes Adama Gaye, Senegalese journalist and essayist, specialist in international relations. “If it wants to develop long-term partnerships with the continent, Russia must support its food independence by helping it to develop its production capacity for fertilizers and cereals, by building factories and by providing production tools”.
Read alsoBlack Sea cereals: Russia assures that African countries will not be harmed
All-round diversification
On July 23, a few days before the summit, the Kremlin published a letter of the Russian President, setting out the “priority areas of cooperation”. Vladimir Putin underlines his desire to “intensify” work in many sectors including high-tech, geological exploration, energy, in particular nuclear, the chemical industry, or even mining and transport engineering, promising “the extension of the network of Russian embassies and trade representations” on the continent.
Among the major Russian projects launched in recent years on the continent are the offshore gas exploitation contract in Mozambique, signed by the Russian group Rosneft, or the nuclear power plant projects of Rosatom in South Africa and Egypt.
“The possibilities of partnerships are not lacking” underlines Adama Gaye. “Africa needs co-investments in infrastructure, energy, petrochemicals, cybersecurity or even the manufacturing industry. In these areas, the Russians have a card to play because they offer affordable expertise and standards often plus flexible. But for the Africansthe question today is rather whether Russia is still able to carry out these investments because it is no longer as powerful financially as it was at the time of the summit of Sotchi”.
If the Russian economy has resisted international sanctions better than it had predicted THE supporters of Ukraine, it has nevertheless entered into recession since the large-scale invasion scale of Russia. According toestimations of the World Bank, its GDP, which fell by 2.1% in 2022, should once more fall by 2.5% in 2023.
False promises?
In October 2019, before fifty heads of state and government gathered in the seaside city of Sochi, Vladimir Putin promised to “double trade within five years” with the continent.
However, following several years of growth, these recorded a decline over the period 2018 – 2021, from 20 at $17.7 billion. A figure out of all proportion to Chinese trade (282 billion), the European Union (254 billion) or the United States (83 billion) with Africa, while Russia still represents less than 1 % of foreign investment in the continent.
In his letter to African countries, Vladimir Putin claims that Russia’s trade turnover with African countries will increase in 2022 “to almost 18 billion US dollars”, while acknowledging that the “capabilities of [leur] trade and economic partnership are much greater”.
Russia tends to “over-promise and under-promise when it comes to its economic commitments in Africa”, analyzes Joseph Siegle, author of a report on Russia’s economic commitments in Africa. For the American researcher, Russia wishes above all “to promote its geostrategic interests […] to secure a foothold in the Mediterranean on NATO’s southern border, displace Western influence and normalize Russia’s worldview”.
“Apart from perhaps a few privileged partners such as Egypt, South Africa or Nigeria, Africa is clearly not a priority market for Russia,” emphasizes Igor Delanoë, deputy director of the Franco-Russian Observatory. “Sub-Saharan Africa represents only one to two billion dollars a year out of the 700 billion of Russian foreign trade. Nevertheless, Moscow needs to build new partnerships and, as such, this market can be promising”.
“Africa presents a mosaic of economies with different income levels, economic structures and development goals. It is up to Russia to adapt to this diversity if it wants to trade at a significant level with each of the countries of the continent,” believes Julien Vercueil.
communication operation
The economist judges Nevertheless that the first issue of the summit for Moscow stay of “preserve the image of partner-recourse” for African countriess “wanting to find strong alternatives to their relations with Western powers”.
“The economic dimension cannot be absent from this type of summit. But the display and the symbolism, in circumstances of isolation of Russia by Western countries, will be the main objectives of this event for the Russian authorities”.
In this context, the communication battle is raging between kyiv’s allies and Russia to gain favor with the continent’s heads of state. As France sees its influence diminish in its former colonies, President Emmanuel Macron was annoyed, during his visit to Cameroon, of the reluctance of certain African countries to designate Russia as an aggressor. In March 2022, around twenty states on the continent preferred to abstain from a United Nations resolution calling on Russia for a military withdrawal from Ukraine.
“The leaders do not want to support the West in a conflict that does not concern them. But that doesn’t mean they support Russia,” said Senegalese journalist Adame Gaye, present in 2019 at the first summit of Sotchi. “This first meeting was in line with similar events organized by the United States and the EU with Africa and it generated real enthusiasm. Today the context has changed. Africans are willing to do business but they do not want to be pawns in the conflict between Moscow and the West. What they want to defend are African interests,” he concludes.
1690284122
#misleading #economic #issues
