inflation
This official hopes that prices will begin to drop soon.
4/3/2023
This Saturday -March 4- did not come with good news for Colombians, since inflation continues without respite and despite what some analysts and the National Government expected, it refuses to give in and, on the contrary, increasingly tightens the economy and envisions new increases in interest rates on the horizon by the Banco de la República, an institution that continues in its fight to slow down the cost of living, despite the fact that the slowdown is already strongly felt in various productive sectors.
According to data revealed by the National Administrative Department of Statistics (Dane) around noon, for the second month of the year, the Consumer Price Index stood at 1.66%, evidencing an increase of 0.3% compared to the same period in 2022. While in the accumulated annual, in reference to the In the last 12 months, inflation stands at 13.28%, reflecting an increase of 5.27% compared to last year.
Despite the fact that the news on this matter is not very encouraging, the Minister of Finance, José Antonio Ocampo, continues to be optimistic, to the point where he looked for the positive side of the data provided by the statistical authority and noted that it “celebrates” several advances, especially with regard to the impact of inflation in the lowest strata, which for months have been the most affected by this scourge.
“I am pleased that the country’s inflation has peaked and, in particular, that the annual rate of inflation for low-income households and agricultural products has been reduced. In March we will begin to see a slower rate of price increase,” said this official.
Ocampo has stated on several occasions that he prefers to be optimistic regarding the future of the rise in prices in the country and despite the fact that he has already been wrong on several occasions with his forecasts regarding when this indicator will begin to drop, he once once more indicated that he expects the cost of living to correct the trend it has had since mid-2022 very soon and take a downward trend. contrary to what other experts indicate, who maintain that for now only a stabilization should be expected.
The failed projections of the Ministry of Finance
For example, at the meeting last September, Ocampo stated: “Inflation has been a rather frustrating process and the data from the previous month (inflation: August 2022 – 10.8%) It was particularly frustrating, we hope, I am among the optimists that this month’s data will be more positive and that can change”.
Later, in October, he said: “Looking towards next year, in a context that we hope will mean a significant reduction in inflation, both in Banco de la República and the Ministry of Finance, we are projecting around 7 % inflation; We even hope that this month (inflation: October 2022 – 12.22%) it will begin to drop slightly when some of its problems are overcome”.
A third announcement was made at the board of directors in December of last year, in which he expressed: “The majority decision (to raise interest rates) is because inflation had risen, but let’s say, when inflation changes direction, the interest rate will be able to be lowered; Let’s say, I’m optimistic, even December’s (inflation: December 2022 – 13.12%) is going to be lower than November’s, we’ll see how inflation is presented”.
Although he did not comment on the January data, now that the cost of living has skyrocketed once more for February, he insisted that the ceiling for this rise is close and that the country might expect a setback for the month of March, taking Keep in mind that several items that push this rise have already begun to fall. We will have to wait to see if he succeeds this time.
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