Military expert: Russia is deliberately escalating the situation

“Extremely intense and difficult battles are taking place at the front. As before, the center of gravity is at Bakhmut, Marjinka and Avdijivka. Near the latter city, the threat of encirclement by Ukrainian forces remains, so the Ukrainians constantly transfer new reinforcements, counterattack and prevent the Russians from closing the encirclement ring,” says the expert.

Photo by AFP/Scanpix and Liberal Movement/Egidijus Papeckys

In the direction of Zaporizhia, where the Ukrainian offensive did not achieve its goals, both sides are actively attacking each other. In the Kherson region, the Russians continue to fire at the bridgehead, and there are no more active attacks on the ground.

According to the Russians, at night and in the morning, with a difference of several hours, two Ukrainian drones were shot down over Moscow, and a total of 9 drones were shot down over the Kaluga and Moscow regions.

“The Kremlin says that this is an attempt to commit a terrorist act. “Ukraine is attacked several times a day by Shahed drones and missiles, but the Russians do not see their own actions as criminal,” notes E.Papečkys.

“One drone flew over the target, fell and exploded on the territory of Romania. Fortunately, no one was injured, but Russia, by firing at targets right next to the border of the NATO state, is deliberately escalating the situation – it knows very well that NATO will not respond with military force due to the accidental fall of a drone or missile. Not because they are “afraid” of something, but because wars are not started because of such incidents,” emphasized the military expert.

According to him, Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to Argentina gave a small but necessary result – he promised to hand over two Mi-17E helicopters to the Ukrainians.

“Russian President Vladimir Putin said that there are 617,000 soldiers on the Ukrainian front. soldiers, of which 244 thousand – mobilized reservists, the rest – professional service soldiers and volunteers and mercenaries of all kinds. Russian forces in Ukraine are currently strengthened and ready to dominate throughout the winter, hoping to maintain their lead in the spring as well,” says the analyst.

According to him, this means that a tough fight is ahead, the Ukrainians simply need to exhaust the aggressors by the summer, so that the Russians do not have the opportunity for larger attacks with maneuver forces when the weather is favorable.

“Of course, in the ideal case, the Ukrainians themselves will mobilize their forces for an attack, but it is very possible that such an advantage as this summer will be lost to the Ukrainian forces in 2024. won’t get Especially if military support will not be greatly increased and accelerated,” the military expert summarizes.