Military analyst: Ukraine does not have enough ammunition for even minimal defense needs

The commander of military intelligence predicts how the front line will change following the capture of Avdijivka

AFP/Scanpix/Chief of Defense Intelligence of Ukraine Kyrylo Budanov

The head of Ukrainian military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, admitted that following the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Avdiyivka, a difficult situation arose at the front. However, at the same time, he pointed out that, approaching the threshold of the third anniversary of a large-scale war, Russia also has problems.

As K. Budanov said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal, in the first year of the invasion, the professional Russian army was basically destroyed. Now Russia is sending untrained mobsters to carry out “meat raids”.

According to the head of military intelligence, Russia is using more artillery shells than it can produce. Although the Russians put hundreds of tanks into service last year, most of them were old models, and only 178 were new. In addition, Russia stopped firing missiles at Ukraine due to the reduced stockpiles.

K. Budanov noted that it will be difficult for Moscow to achieve its main strategic goal this year – to occupy all the eastern territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

“They don’t have the strength,” he emphasized.

Western officials and analysts consider K. Budanov’s statements as the best scenario for Ukraine this year. If Ukraine is able to fight a smart defensive battle, weakening and wearing down Russian forces and simultaneously restoring its own, by 2025 it will be able to launch another counterattack once morest weakened Russian forces.

“Will they (partners – ed. post) be ready to supply us with weapons and ammunition for the whole year while we prepare or not?” This is an interesting question”, noted K. Budanov.

According to a study conducted by the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank, Russian forces will reach their peak at the end of the year, and in 2025 combating the shortage of ammunition and armor.

Ukraine’s leadership, Western military officials and analysts have expressed concern regarding equipment and manpower shortages following last year’s failed counteroffensive. For its part, Russia has proven that it can easily and quickly find additional equipment and new troops.

The head of military intelligence indicated that Russia has 510,000 troops in Ukraine. soldiers With the available capacity, the Russians can recruit regarding 30,000 people per month. people.

However, Moscow used its troops ineffectively. At a security forum in Munich on Saturday, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Russia had only achieved small gains that claimed tens of thousands of lives and destroyed small towns and villages.

K. Budanov estimated that since the beginning of the large-scale invasion, the Russian army needed almost two years of intense attacks to occupy Avdiyivka in Ukraine. According to other estimates, the process of occupying Avdijivka lasted for ten years – from 2014.

“Is this the success of the huge, powerful Russian army?” K. Budanov asked ironically.

It was previously reported that on February 17 According to the decision of the Ukrainian military command, the Ukrainian defenders left Avdiyivka. The soldiers took up defenses at the established borders, in positions prepared in advance. Intense battles around Avdijivka have been going on since 2023. October month. At the same time, the city since 2014 is part of the front line.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told the CNN media group that Ukraine would not have lost Avdiyivka if it had received all the artillery ammunition it needed to defend the city.

British intelligence believes Russia is likely to seek to gradually extend its territorial control beyond Avdiyivka in the coming weeks.