2024-02-26 10:00:00
Hoy 07:00
Javier Milei, once once more, shows that He is not made of the same material as traditional political leadership. From his tactical movements for linking with other actors on the board to his discursive style and the platforms chosen, we are facing a non-traditional president (at least not in the tradition of the Argentine Republic).
The burning demand around the legal and political correspondence around resources is just one more chapter. The claim of the governor of Chubut accompanied by another group of governors who would potentially find themselves in a similar situation, as well as the power that the Nation has to retain and collect debt on co-participation, is just more evidence that we need to develop new mechanisms to analyze the president.
Llaryora is going through its most complicated moment since he became governor
Use only the glasses from the past to analyze The lion’s actions only lead to a dead end. We are faced with a leader who carries out a cause, an epic that, in principle, is not re-elected or building his own political power, at least in the old way. A black swan, in these young 40 years of democracy.
Javier Milei took office on December 10, 2023, with the need to sustain what got him there: a change. In Argentine society there is little consensus, although without a doubt the exhaustion of the economic, social and political system allowed 56% of Argentines to choose to change. Contingent consensus, precarious and even with numerous empty signifiers; even more so when power is assumed without consolidated national structures, without its own governors and without legislative majorities in at least some Chamber. Isn’t the situation under which he assumes also exceptional?
Faced with such a scenario, what was expected was that as of December 11, bridges of dialogue would be established that would allow them to reconcile what changes were essential to straighten the course of the country and stop, among other things, the long-awaited inflation. However, outside of traditional expectations, Milei chooses to break out of the mold because he is reliably convinced that he has been chosen in an extremely complex context, under a mission of transcendence: to be the person who manages to stop the historical economic instability in our country. It is from this ironclad conviction, also supported by the social belief associated with the existence of a caste that causes a large part of the pressing problems in Argentina, that the actions of the national government are explained.
A contingency scheme in the event of Ersa leaving the system
It is time to shuffle and give once more, to bring to the discussion table those issues that were assumed to be closed and to redefine positions. Without a doubt, the national government seeks to establish the rules of the game and does not concern dialogue as negotiation. There are certain points linked to the fiscal balance on which there will be no negotiation because there is the conviction that the end justifies the means.
An economic logic that crashes at 200km/h once morest a political establishment that is stunned and that reacts even though, in most situations, it is required to enter into discussions within the framework that the national government desires and under its own terms. As we saw during a good part of the campaign and now in the government, once once more, the national ruling party imposing an agenda.
Specifically, the uprising of the governors in the face of this new scenario may lead to a reconfiguration that moves from the dichotomous AMBA axis versus the interior of the country, to the provinces versus the Nation. What do the parties have to gain? On the one hand, the president considers that the only possibility is joint adjustment and that the way to apply it is without prior consultations and relies for this on the popular mandate and the still fertile sand of public waste. On the other hand, the provinces claim for something that they understand is their own: their resources. Concomitantly, what happens is that those provinces that contribute less to the total productive mass will also begin to ask themselves – at least internally – what part they should be redistributed based on their contribution.
In short, is there any room for the social group to win? Regardless of whether it is shared or not with the forms in which the discussion is taking place – no small issue and one that justifies an analysis in itself -, issues that had not been discussed for around two decades are being placed on the discussion table. with such firmness: co-participation and federalism. It is up to the Judiciary to put an end to this issue. However, the balance that remains in terms of social as a whole is the updating of discussions that, in other times, were believed to be settled and that, most likely, will be a continuum for at least the next few months of management.
Lucia Bonetto Cornatosky – @luciabonettoc: Strategy and political communication. Master in Interactive Digital Communication from the UNR and Bachelor in Political Science from the UCC. Co-author of the book “To win you need votes, do you know where to find them?”
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Mario Rodriguez @mariorodrigue_z – Political consultant and strategist, specialized in territorial approach. Master in Governance and Political Communication from George Washington University. Co-author of the book “To win you need votes, do you know where to find them?”
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#Milei #León #black #swan
