On Monday, nearly 600 people, including 35 children and 94 women, were killed in Israeli strikes in Lebanon, according to the country’s health ministry. Israel’s IDF said it struck about 1,600 Hezbollah targets, killing a “large number” of militants. Further strikes were carried out on Tuesday, making them the deadliest attacks Israel has carried out in Lebanon since the 2006 war. The Israeli strikes came less than a week after coordinated blasts on drones carried by Hezbollah members killed 45 people and injuring nearly 3,000. Hezbollah responded with new rocket attacks deep into Israeli territory.
Worry
There are now strong fears of a possible Israeli ground attack on South Lebanon. Although a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah is more likely than ever, both sides still prefer to avoid it.
Much of what happens next depends on how Hezbollah’s main backer, Iran, chooses to respond. On Tuesday, Iranian President Massoud Pezheskian denounced the UN’s “inaction” against Israel, calling it “absurd and incomprehensible”, amid rising tensions across the Middle East. “I expressed my deep concern about the spread of the conflict throughout the Middle East,” he added.
Earlier, Pezeskian told CNN that Iran’s ally Hezbollah “cannot stand alone against a country that is defended and fed by Europe and the US,” while calling on the international community “not to allow Lebanon to become another one Gaza”.
Restraint
Iran understands the meaning of the word “restraint” better than any other state. Despite intense speculation of an immediate military conflict between Iran and Israel following the assassination of Ismail Haniya in Tehran on July 31, there is little sign that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) intends to immediately avenge the humiliation.
It often happens that Iran sends soft messages in one area and hard messages in another. But it is also true that Iran does not want Hezbollah to enter into an all-out war with Israel. In fact, it is estimated that in the background Iran is trying to de-escalate the situation. So I highly doubt that Tehran would be directly involved in any escalation of the conflicts between Israel and Hezbollah. It is estimated that to some extent they will keep their distance, although they will certainly supply Hezbollah.
The IRGC’s avoidance of a direct conflict with Israel appears to be rooted in a complex web of strategic, military, and political considerations. While Iran faces domestic and psychological pressure to respond to Israeli provocations, the risks of escalation, the expanded US military deterrent, domestic political and economic challenges, and the benefits of proxy warfare have contributed to Tehran’s cautious approach. As long as this dynamic remains in place, Iran is likely to continue to rely on proxies and asymmetric warfare, rather than risk an all-out war with Israel. One of the main reasons for the IRGC’s reluctance to engage directly with Israel is the fear of igniting a wider conflict.
Military superiority
Additionally, Israel’s military superiority is a major issue. Israel’s advanced missile defense systems (Iron Dome, David’s Sling) make a successful large-scale attack by Iran unlikely. A failed or incomplete attack would further embarrass the ayatollahs’ regime and weaken its regional position. Instead of engaging in direct military action, Iran has perfected the use of proxy warfare. Tehran’s network of proxies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and various Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria, allows it to strike at Israeli interests while maintaining a plausible deniability and non-responsibility of their actions.
This type of war also allows Iran to maintain its regional influence without straining its military capabilities. Iran is acutely aware of the changing geopolitical picture, particularly amid the US presidential election and efforts to achieve a cease-fire in Gaza.
There is a lot of talk that Israel wants an all-out war with Lebanon. In reality, however, what we are seeing today is an escalation aimed at influencing the outcome of… any negotiations and not to provoke an all-out war.
HUMANITARIAN CRISIS
Thousands displaced, shortages in medicines and basic necessities
The recent escalation of the conflict is the deadliest in nearly two decades, displacing tens of thousands in southern Lebanon and northern Israel, according to a spokesman for the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).
The latest displacement is the largest the country has experienced since the Second War between Israel and Hezbollah broke out in 2006. Earlier this week, the Israeli military warned residents in South Lebanon to evacuate their homes and other buildings immediately in view of the raids. Tens of thousands of people received alerts on their cellphones from the Israeli military to stay away from places where Hezbollah stores weapons.
According to Lebanon’s acting interior minister, Bassam Moulay, more than 20,000 people are estimated to be already housed in buildings and centers designated by the authorities as “public shelters”.
Hospitals
The sudden influx of civilians into the capital not only presents challenges in providing shelter, but also in basic necessities. Hospitals have been instructed to stop receiving regular or minor cases to make room for the injured. At the same time, the country’s health system is called upon to provide care for displaced citizens with cancer, kidney failure or other chronic illnesses.
According to UNHCR, an estimated 1.5 million Syrian refugees have been residing in the country (for 12 years) and face renewed displacement and uncertainty. UNICEF’s deputy spokesman stressed at a press conference that further escalation of hostilities would be “absolutely devastating” for all children in Lebanon, especially those from the eastern part of the country who were forced to flee their homes.
QUESTION WITHOUT AN ANSWER
“When will the carnage end?”
Few have an answer to the question: “When will the carnage end?” The Israelis have made it clear that their current offensive will not stop until they push Hezbollah back from the border. To consolidate this goal, Israel has made the return of its citizens to the north of the country part of its broader war goals.
Israel’s ongoing military campaign against Hezbollah began 12 days ago, when a widespread explosion of buglers belonging to Hezbollah killed and wounded members of it.
The next day, the walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah also exploded. The two-day death toll hovers around 45, with an additional 3,000 injured in the coordinated attacks. Israel claims that in recent days its airstrikes hit more than 1,600 targets (across Lebanon), seeking to destroy Hezbollah’s military infrastructure, and all scenarios are now open…
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