UI International Observer Broto Wardoyo said domestic conflicts in the Middle East might develop quickly and become global conflicts because they attract more world attention.
“The model is always interactive, so it is not only global powers that enter but local powers try to attract global powers,” said Broto in a discussion on the escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict: There is still hope for peace in the Middle East at UI Monday (30/4) .
When Iran’s retaliatory attack on Israel occurred, the lecturer in International Relations at the Faculty of Social and Political Sciences at UI said that several academics were thinking regarding the worst case scenario. The reason is, it will be followed by the involvement of large countries so that it will have implications for many things.
“The most worrying thing is world war,” he said
In the Middle East there are 3 dominant powers, namely Saudi, Israel and Iran. Interestingly, the polarization of the three countries follows the logic of balance.
“They will always try to balance each other so that there is no overly dominant power in the region,” he said.
Also read: Want to counterattack Israel, how strong is Iran’s military position?
He added that there was a period where Israel-Iran was close, to balance Saudi and there was also a period where Israel-Saudi was close to balance Iran’s strength.
“That’s the logic they always use, so they don’t want one of them to be the sole power in the region,” he continued
Then there are several world powers that are actively involved in the Middle East. Broto continued, such as the United States (US), Russia and China.
Also read: The Middle East Enters a New Era with Israel’s Attack on Iran
“The US, Russia and China have different models of engagement,” he explained.
Similar to Movies
Meanwhile, FIB UI Arabic Studies Lecturer Bastian Zulyeno, said that Iran’s 300 missile attack on Israel was similar to the title of a controversial film in 2006.
“This film tells the story of the long history of Persia, why this film has become controversial is because according to experts in Iranian history, this film made by Hollywood is not the same as written history,” he said.
Also read: Türkiye calls on all parties to exercise restraint regarding the Middle East conflict
The film contributed to the intensity of Iran’s anger, as it was seen as an affront to tradition and culture.
Meanwhile, FIB UI Arab Studies Lecturer Ade So seen expressed the fact that there was doubt among some circles regarding Iran’s attack on Israel.
“Iran’s attack on Israel was viewed with doubt, because of differences in sects. Many thought it (the attack) was just lip service, Iran was pretending,” he said.
According to him, some people often consider the past to be static and judge the same. In fact, the policy depends on the regime in power and the balance of power.
“So you can’t talk regarding sects, when each person is calculating profit and loss,” he continued
He also highlighted Jordan’s rejection of Iran’s attack on Israel. This cannot be separated from the balance and calculations between countries. (Fer/Z-7)
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