2024-11-08 03:30:00
Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election leaves Mexico facing potential trade tensions, tariffs and mass deportations of migrants that will test relations between the neighbors with vast borders.
On the eve of the election, Trump promised to impose tariffs of at least 25% on Mexican exports unless he could stop “the onslaught of criminals and drugs.”
Mexico “You should take seriously what Trump says,” given what he did in his first term, such as building a wall on the border, Pamela Starr, an expert on relations between the two countries, told AFP.
At the same time, “Trump likes to negotiate from a position of strength, which means he tends to use coercive rhetoric to present an extreme situation that can be negotiated downward,” the USC expert added.
According to the Central Bank of Mexico (Central Bank of Mexico), the Mexican peso fell 0.43% from Tuesday’s closing price to 20.16 units/USD.
“There is no reason to worry (…) our economy is very solid,” Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said earlier on Wednesday. She later expressed her “heartiest congratulations” to Trump.
“This is a very important economic integration that is beneficial to both countries. This is the advantage of both countries. We will not compete with each other. On the contrary, we are complementary,” the leftist president added.
Mexico will replace China as the United States’ main trading partner in 2023.
Personally, Analysts expect Trump’s relationship with the openly feminist Mexican president to be more tense than with Democrat Kamala Harris.
Sheinbaum “is a strong and smart woman. She’s the kind of woman that Trump doesn’t feel comfortable with,” Starr said.
“I think he’s going to challenge her, put pressure on her, push her. But she’s tough and I suspect she’s going to respond just as hard and eventually he’ll realize he has to come to some kind of deal.
For Gabriela Siller, head of economic analysis at Banco BASE, the 25% tariff is not “a minor threat.”
“They will affect exports, formal job creation, foreign direct investment and economic growth. As a result, the credit rating of Mexico’s sovereign debt will definitely be downgraded,” he explained.
‘Credible threat’
Trump has pledged to carry out the largest immigration deportations in U.S. history, which will be one of the main tests for Mexico. analysts warn.
Starr estimated that Trump “will absolutely try to deport as many undocumented immigrants as possible, which will be a challenge for the relationship between Mexico and the United States.”
Migrants interviewed by AFP in Mexico and Guatemala expressed concerns about Trump’s return to the White House.
“I’ve been waiting for Kamala to win because you see, Trump is the one who built the wall for us,” said Mexican Leopoldo Ferman, waiting in the border city of Ciudad Juárez (north) said when making an appointment request.
Meanwhile, a caravan of hundreds of migrants moved through southern Mexico toward the U.S. border.
Sheinbaum assured that Mexico’s efforts have reduced the number of migrants arriving at the border by 75% since December.
In his first term as president (2017-2021), just as the massive caravans began to appear, Trump threatened to impose tariffs on Mexico if it did not stop the migrants.
“He got the reaction he wanted from Mexico,” which sent a delegation to Washington to negotiate the deal, Duncan Wood explained. Chairman of the Pacific International Policy Council, an American civil society organization.
“They are credible threats. And Trump is not a supporter of free trade. Neither is his loved one this time. I think he will use the same type of threats to get what he wants from Mexico,” he explained road.
‘Disorderly’ business relationships under scrutiny
Wood, a veteran observer of relations with Mexico, warned that trade relations could become “very messy.” And it does not rule out Trump seeking to renegotiate regional free trade agreements to obtain better terms.
This uncertainty could become a major obstacle to Mexico’s efforts to attract U.S. factories from Asia, known as “near-shoring.”
The T-MEC between Mexico, the United States and Canada, which Trump successfully redefined during his first presidential term, must be reviewed in 2026. Ramse Gutiérrez pointed out that a Republican victory could translate into a “more aggressive negotiating style”, which would create “uncertainty” and affect exchange rates and inflation.
However, Wood believes threats to send troops or bomb Mexican cartels are unlikely to materialize. “Launching missiles into Mexico is not something the U.S. military wants to do,” he estimated. “And any action on the ground is not going to work.”
*AFP Journal.
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**Interview with Pamela Starr, Expert on U.S.-Mexico Relations**
**Interviewer:** Thank you for joining us today, Pamela. With Trump’s recent election and his direction for U.S.-Mexico relations, what are your initial thoughts about the implications for trade and migration?
**Pamela Starr:** Thank you for having me. It’s certainly a complex situation. Trump’s rhetoric around imposing tariffs signifies a hardline approach which could mirror some of the challenges we saw during his first term. If he moves forward with those tariffs on Mexican exports, it could potentially strain our economic ties further.
**Interviewer:** Indeed. You’ve mentioned before that Trump likes to negotiate from a position of strength. How do you see this affecting his relationship with President Sheinbaum?
**Pamela Starr:** That’s right. Trump has a tendency to use coercive tactics, presenting extreme situations to drive negotiations. With President Sheinbaum being a strong and intelligent leader, I believe he’ll attempt to exert pressure, but she may prove to be a formidable counterpart. It will be interesting to see how she navigates this dynamic.
**Interviewer:** Given that the Mexican peso has already fallen in reaction to Trump’s victory, what can we expect in terms of Mexico’s economic stability?
**Pamela Starr:** While the peso’s drop is concerning, Sheinbaum has insisted that Mexico’s economy is solid. However, the potential for tariffs represents a credible threat to exports, job creation, and investment. If enacted, we might see a downgrade in Mexico’s sovereign debt, which could further complicate the economic landscape.
**Interviewer:** You mention that deportations will be a significant test for relations. What impact do you think these policies will have on migration from countries like Mexico and Guatemala?
**Pamela Starr:** Trump’s promise to carry out large-scale deportations is essentially a return to his previous hardline policies, which instilled fear among migrants. It could exacerbate the migrant crisis, as we are already seeing caravans moving towards the U.S. border. This will be a critical area of negotiation and cooperation.
**Interviewer:** How do you assess Sheinbaum’s approach in the face of these challenges?
**Pamela Starr:** Sheinbaum has been clear about her commitment to a positive economic partnership based on mutual benefit. Her administration’s track record shows a willingness to cooperate and reduce migrant traffic. However, how she balances that with a robust defense of Mexican sovereignty will be key in the coming months.
**Interviewer:** Thank you, Pamela. It’s clear that both countries are at a pivotal moment, and relationships will greatly influence many lives and economies on both sides of the border.
**Pamela Starr:** Absolutely. I look forward to seeing how this unfolds and hope for a constructive dialogue between both leaders. Thank you for having me.
