Mexico may have its first female president – will it strengthen women’s rights?

If a woman wins the presidential election in Mexico on June 2, will she rule the country with a gender perspective?

The question has been asked by academics, human rights organizations and activists ahead of the election – which will probably end with Mexico getting a woman as president in the period 2024-2030.

Of the three candidates in the election, it is Claudia Sheinbaum who fares best in the opinion polls. She has promised to follow the line set by current President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.

Then follows Xochitl Galvez, who represents several opposition parties, one of which is historically conservative.

No concrete proposals

But a victory for either Sheinbaum or Galvez may not guarantee support for certain gender-related policy issues.

Neither of the two candidates has made concrete proposals related to abortion. However, both have promoted equality and protection measures for women in what is an ongoing wave of violence and killings once morest women in Mexico.

Over 80 percent of the population of Mexico belong to the Catholic Church, which corresponds to around 98 million people.

Decriminalized

Twelve of Mexico’s 32 states have decriminalized abortion, most of them in the last five years. Another state is expected to join the twelve following it has had to change its criminal law in line with a court order.

Some of the other states allow abortion if the pregnant woman’s life is in danger, and it is legal nationwide if the pregnancy has occurred as a result of rape.

Mexico’s Supreme Court ruled in 2023 that national laws banning abortion are unconstitutional and violate women’s rights.

The decision, which joins a trend in Latin America to expand access to abortion, came a year following the US Supreme Court went in the opposite direction. Then a ruling from 1973 which established a nationwide right to abortion was overturned.

A lot of work remains

Although the ruling by the Mexican Supreme Court ordered that abortion should not be punishable under the federal criminal code, and that federal health facilities offer the procedure to anyone who requests it, much work remains in the states.

In most states where abortion is decriminalized, activists say they face continuing challenges in making abortion safe, accessible and publicly funded.

To meet restrictions and bans, dozens of volunteers – known as “acompanantes” – have developed a nationwide network to share information regarding self-administered medical abortions according to guidelines set by the World Health Organization (WHO).

Moral authority

Whoever wins the presidential election will not be able to directly influence abortion legislation, as each state has autonomy over its criminal law.

But the president will be able to have an impact as a moral authority among members of his or her party, says Ninde Molina, a lawyer at Abortistas MX, an organization that specializes in abortion rights strategies.

– Much of the governors’ behavior imitates that of the president, says Molina.

She is among the activists who are concerned that neither Sheinbaum nor Galvez have presented concrete proposals that address abortion, LGBT+ rights or the protection of migrants.

– Lumpy proposals send a message that these are not fundamental rights, says Molina.

Legal reform

Although Molina does not immediately worry regarding a backlash on abortion policy, the outlook will change if Lopez Obrador or Sheinbaum implement a judicial reform aimed at replacing the current judges with new ones elected by the population.

– The legal system is in danger. People may see choosing judges as attractive, but they don’t understand what it entails, says Molina.

She points out that if the composition of judges in the country’s Supreme Court changes, there might be a backlash if a new abortion case reaches the court – as happened in the USA.

What do the conservatives think?

Neither Sheinbaum nor Galvez represent Mexico’s conservative interests, says Isaac Alonso of the Viva Mexico movement, which supported right-wing activist Eduardo Verastegui’s unsuccessful bid to become a presidential candidate.

In the conservative ranks, no one is in favor of punishing pregnant women who have an abortion, says Alonso. But since they are convinced that abortion is irresponsible, they would rather hope for policies that encourage the completion of pregnancies through improvements in the adoption system.

Rodrigo Ivan Cortes, who heads the National Family Front, an anti-abortion group, believes the current government cannot be considered an ally.

– Before 2018, abortion was only legal in Mexico City, he says.

– No guarantee

– Even if a woman wins, there is no guarantee of a gender perspective, says Pauline Capdevielle, an academic from the Nacional Autonoma de Mexico University.

She believes that a change will occur if you get feminists into the government.

– It’s not regarding getting women in where there aren’t any, but regarding putting the problems on the agenda and really promoting a change, says Capdevielle.

According to her, some of the problems that should be addressed are precisely abortion and pregnancy rights and women’s participation in political processes.

– The right to abortion must be strengthened. It is far from being a reality for all pregnant women, she says.