2023-05-15 18:04:00
The Economist Carlos Melconian referred to the uncertainty due to the possible candidacies in the ruling party, while predicted an inevitable devaluation and asked for apatriotic transition bridge“for the next management.
The former director of the Banco Nación of the macrismo, in dialogue with Marcelo Longobardi in Radio Rivadaviaspoke of a “dissociation“Between the desire to be a candidate for Sergio Massa and the results of the economy, and clearly asked: “Let’s stop fucking around with the operative outcry. Fix this mess. Here no one has a cry for anyone “.
The economic fragility of Massa
“The Minister of Economy clouds the political plan with his supposed candidacy. It is a rare situation, because there is an absolute record, since I have worked, in terms of dissociation between the variables that look at society and define and the appetite for the candidacy, because If I look at the GDP, the inflation rate, the level of activity, the real salary and the poverty rate, in all four cases -and by far- these indicators are worse than 2015, 2017 and 2021. There is an absolute dissociation in terms of wanting to be a candidate and the economic results“, he stressed.
Melconian diagnosed a “plane turbulence” scenario and wondered “how to get to August”
However, he acknowledged that the government suffered “a ‘knockout’ blow with the drought. “Between August and December 2022, it has suffered an impact that does not justify this government, but it is a knockout, which is the drought.”
And added that The International Monetary Fund has been supporting Massa’s management by “looking the other way”. “The drought has already caused a resounding failure of what has been implemented up to now. And even the IMF’s complicity of ‘I look the other way’ fails. ‘We are taking it and we are seeing’. That is why today the plantation is in a vegetative state. relationship with the fund. Who takes the initiative in the ruling party? It is not the president, it will be the leader of the space, the vice president, who is on the silent bench of the minister. And the minister that if he showed off something was from his street, his pragmatism, obviously he is either lacking in reflexes, or he is not evaluating the candidacy issue well “.
“The thing regarding the soybean dollar, regarding China, regarding Brazil, passing the cap, all this is recognizing that everything failed if Massa drops his candidacy. If you are validated as a candidate, the fund will ask you to move forward and keep looking the other way. They are once more dollars to throw in the sewer. Today oxygen is that, for not ‘taking the bull by the horns’,” she added.
Melconian: “Massa has to define if he is going to work for the Argentines or continue to see if he is a candidate”
Would Massa make a devaluation and a fiscal adjustment?
The economist assured: “I do not see that there are at this moment or short-term decisions to direct the situation, that is, to give air to the plan to arrive. I clarify that it is not easy. And the construction of what I call a bridge to future for the transition. I can’t forget that, here everyone doesn’t stop the ball for two minutes. Nobody is taking care of that”.
Then, he returned to Massa’s possible candidacy and wryly wondered if the minister would be capable of devaluing and making a fiscal adjustment, something Melconian considered necessary despite stressing that he is not a member of any “devaluationist club.”
Melconian spoke of his meeting with Cristina Kirchner: “Let’s de-dramatize, I went to see her as I see the whole world”
“You confirm Massa as a candidate and he is going to devalue and make a fiscal adjustment? Is the fund going to give you dollars once morest nothing? There is one thing that does not forgive, which is reality. The political plan if the Minister of Economy is the candidate, that is not going anywhere. This exchange rate is no longer going, and this inflation has a fiscal and monetary origin“, argument.
“You have a problem of supply and demand for dollars. With a price of the official exchange rate…and I’m not a member of the devaluationist club! but there is no such exchange. One day they sell bonds, they buy bonds, they want to lower the country risk,” he specified.
Melconian called for drawing a “patriotic bridge to the future”
The economist who has been meeting with almost all the political leaders in recent months (from Cristina Kirchner to Patricia Bullrich), suggested regarding the “operative clamor” for the possible candidacy of the vice president, that “there is no operative outcry or any candidate from anyone. Here’s a shit to the canyon brand transition. Massa succeeded at the end of the year in stabilizing the instability. But by saying that I had not gone over to massismo. It is who is in charge of issues of common sense to go through the transition “.
“Let’s stop fucking around with the operative outcry. Fix this mess because you’re going to come if the anti-system doesn’t take it away. Here no one has a cry for anyone. Build the bridge of the patriotic transition and tell the truth. We’re still saying that if you tell people the truth, you don’t win. If people already know the truth. Set up a transition by telling the truth, that things that are not being adjusted are going to have to be adjusted. Is there really someone from the ruling party who thinks they win with these indicators?“, he concluded.
JD /
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