meeting planned between the presidents of Guyana and Venezuela to resolve an explosive situation

2023-12-11 07:30:00

Objective: to defuse an explosive situation which might tip into conflict. This Thursday, in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, the presidents of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, and Guyana, Irfaan Ali, will meet to address the thorny issue of Essequibo, an oil-rich Guyanese territory claimed by Caracas. They will be accompanied by Brazilian President Lula, who, at the “request of both parties” is attempting mediation. Why Saint Vincent and the Grenadines? Because the meeting is placed under the auspices not only of CARICOM, the Caribbean Community, but also of CELAC, the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States, including the Prime Minister of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Ralph Gonsalves holds the rotating presidency.

“There is an urgent need to de-escalate the conflict and establish an appropriate, face-to-face dialogue,” writes the letter signed by the latter.

On Saturday, Guyana’s President Irfaan Ali confirmed to AFP that he would attend the meeting, saying he was firm on the fact that “theThe (territorial) dispute is before the International Court of Justice (ICJ), that it is not subject to negotiation and (that) this will not change “. For his part, Yvan Gil, the Venezuelan Minister of Foreign Affairs, insisted that the dispute “ will only be resolved through dialogue, mutual respect and commitment to preserving the region as a zone of peace and free from (all) interference. » In search of a peaceful solution, Lula asked Nicolas Maduro on Saturday morning not to take “ unilateral measures » which would aggravate the border conflict.

“If there’s one thing we don’t want, it’s a war in South America,” he said. A point of view shared by Colombian President Gustavo Petro, estimating on the X network that “the greatest misfortune that might hit South America would be a war”.

The oil issue

Oil is the sinews of war in this conflict… The discovery of vast oil deposits has revived the old conflict over the Essequibo, a territory of 160,000 km2 administered by Guyana but which Venezuela claims by maintaining that the real border is that dating from the Spanish empire in 1777.

The dispute is being brought before the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the highest court of the UN, which Venezuela does not recognize. Guyana believes that the boundaries were established in 1899, when the United Kingdom was the colonial power of the territory.

American giant ExxonMobil discovered huge oil reserves in the Essequibo in 2015. With new discoveries in October, Guyana, population 800,000, now has the highest per capita reserves in the world, estimated at 11 billion barrels , a level similar to that of Kuwait. ExxonMobil has developed 63 drilling projects in the Stabroek block, leading Guyana to increase its production to 600,000 barrels per day (bpd). It is expected to reach 1.2 million bpd by the end of 2027.

Caracas believes that the oil operation is taking place in disputed waters and accuses Guyanese President Irfaan Ali of being a “slave” of ExxonMobil.

Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves at 300 billion barrels, but its oil industry is in crisis due to mismanagement, corruption and economic sanctions. Its production, in a little over a decade, has fallen from more than 3 million bpd to less than 400,000. Production is slowly increasing and is around 750,000 bpd.

Referendum

After the December 3 referendum that approved the creation of a Venezuelan province in Essequibo, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro ordered state oil company PDVSA to grant licenses to exploit oil, gas and minerals in the disputed area. He proposed giving companies working with Guyana three months to withdraw from the zone and negotiate with Venezuela.

The Guyanese president called the announcements a “direct threat” to Guyana’s security.

However, the granting of operating permits is difficult to enforce. “ It’s rhetoric “, says Ramon Escovar Leon, lawyer specializing in international litigation. Despite international concern, experts believe that the situation is unlikely to degenerate into armed conflict. Tension rose further with last week’s announcement of American military air exercises in Guyana, “ a provocation » for Venezuela. Concerned regarding its oil supply in the medium and long term, the United States has every interest in ensuring that this nearby area, which includes the largest deposits in the world, remains stable.

However, ” what would happen if the interests of China, which holds a 30% stake in the concessions granted by Guyana, were affected ? » Interroge Ramon Escovar Leon.

The international community recommends, as the Guyanese government wishes, to resolve the dispute before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) which sits in The Hague. It remains for Caracas to recognize its competence.

(With AFP)