Medium-term changes in internal population movements in Latin American countries: the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic changed the patterns of internal population movements around the world. Existing work has focused on countries in the Global North and has been limited to the immediate effects of COVID-19, using data from 2020. The lack of data has been a significant limitation in analyzing changes in mobility patterns within of the countries of the Global South, including Latin America. Using aggregated and anonymized mobile phone location data from Meta-Facebook users, we aim to analyze the impact and persistence of the pandemic on the intensities and patterns of internal population movements across the urban hierarchy. in Argentina, Chile and Mexico over a 26-month period, from March 2020 to May 2022. Our results reveal a systematic and widespread decrease in the intensity of short- and long-distance movements during periods with high levels of restrictions in 2020 , with greater reductions in the most densely populated areas in the capital cities. We also show that, in 2022, after the relaxation of restriction measures, intensities increased, approaching those recorded before the pandemic. However, at average levels they have remained below pre-pandemic levels even in 2022. Our findings support, to a certain extent, the hypothesis of an urban exodus, as they reveal the persistence of negative net balances in short-distance movements in the capitals of Argentina and Mexico, reflecting a pattern of suburbanization. Chile does not show substantial changes in the net balance of short-distance movements, but registers net losses in long-distance movements. These losses were, however, temporary, moving to neutral or positive balances in 2021 and 2022. This contrasts with the pattern of net migration losses observed in the Santiago Metropolitan Region in the last 20 years.

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