With the approach of the autonomous and while the Mediterranean is hot, the risk of seeing the formation of a medicane seems likely. This meteorological phenomenon designates a strong storm in the Mediterranean. Explanations.
The sea is overheating. Due to the scorching temperatures of the past few weeks, the water in the Mediterranean is above 30°C locally. A value well above normal for the season. This exceptional phenomenon could contribute in autumn to the formation of a medicane.
An extreme phenomenon
The medicane is a term composed of the English word “hurricane” (hurricane in French) and the word “Mediterranean”. Literally a hurricane in the Mediterranean. Also called “Mediterranean subtropical cyclone”, it is not, in fact, a hurricane strictly speaking. “The phenomenon is different both in size and intensity. These depressions are smaller in size than those that form hurricanes. They are also of short duration. The winds rarely reach the force of a category 1 hurricane”, explained in 2021 François Gourand, meteorologist at Meteo France.
“The difference is that the heart of tropical storms is hot, while that of medicanes can be cold”, explains Caroline Jane Muller, CNRS researcher on secondment to the Austrian Institute of Science and Technology, in Figaro. With the end of summer, temperatures will begin to drop in the atmosphere. The moist and warm air near the sea will then rise and generate instability. This is the formation of thunderstorms.
Everything can still change by autumn
For a medicane to form, the mass of warm, humid air must encounter a current of cold air. However, the warmer the sea water, the higher the potential intensity of a storm. “It is still too early to predict whether such a phenomenon will occur at the start of the school year,” explains the scientist. On the other hand, the risk of formation of a medicane is very present or even “very high” at the end of the summer. “We can therefore already foresee, if not medicanes, particularly dangerous rainy episodes”, affirms Caroline Jane Muller, quoted by the newspaper.
However, by the fall, everything can still change. The Mediterranean still has the chance to cool down. “All it takes is a blow of the Mistral or the Tramuntana for the temperature to go down. A lot can happen between now and autumn”, explained Florence Vaysse, Languedoc and Roussillon territorial referent at Météo France on July 29. .