Former leftist president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 76, prevailed with 48% of the vote against the far-right president, with 43%
Lula y Bolsonaroa duel with an uncertain ending in a fractured Brazil that is facing weeks of great political uncertainty, after a first round that shattered the forecasts of the polls.
And he snatched from Lula the chances of reaching the presidency without the need for a ballot against Jair Bolsonaro.
Leftist former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 76, won 48% of the vote against the far-right president, with 43%.
But he was far from a comfortable victory as the polls predicted.
Nor did it manage to exceed the 50% needed to avoid a second round on October 30.
The advantage, of five points, left the definition open and projects weeks of an intense and aggressive campaign
In a deeply divided country, analysts consulted by AFP agreed.
The main pollsters had projected a comfortable scenario for the leftist leader, with an advantage of up to 14 points.
What threw the possibility of a victory in the first round.
Instead, Sunday’s numbers corresponded to the “optimistic” scenario advocated by the 67-year-old Bolsonaro campaign team, leaving him with a chance of re-election.
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Lula and Bolsonaro
«The end is open and in an even situation. Bolsonaro will have stronger support than Lula in important states,” said Leandro Consentino, a political scientist at the Insper institute.
He cited the cases of Rio de Janeiro, where the Bolsonaro-aligned governor, Claudio Castro, was re-elected in the first round.
Sao Paulo, which will have a second round with a former Bolsonaro minister as the favorite.
And Minas Gerais, where a governor with a profile against Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT) triumphed.
The three states, from the southeast, gather 40% of the electoral roll.
Bolsonarism also came out stronger on Sunday in the legislative and gubernatorial elections, held in parallel.
“will to change”
Bolsonaro admitted that “many votes” for Lula demonstrated a “willingness for change on the part of the population.”
Affected by price increases, especially in products of the basic basket.
But he said it will show the economy “is on the mend” and warned that a change “may be for the worse.”
Giving as an example the economic reality of other South American countries that elected leftist governments.
Lula, who had planned to celebrate his victory in the first round, admitted that he will have to fight for every vote.
“We will have to travel more, do more public events, more rallies,” said the former president (2003-2010).
The leftist had spent his last days of the campaign calling for a “useful” vote to defeat the president in the first round.
However, the center-left Ciro Gomes, implacable with both Lula and Bolsonaro, “dehydrated” in the final stretch.
He came fourth with a meager 3% and his votes “were useful” for Bolsonaro, explained Adriano Laureno, an analyst at the Prospectiva consultancy.
Marco Antonio Teixeira, a political scientist at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, said that Senator Simone Tebet, third with 4%, and Gomes, can play a “relevant role.”
In the ballot if they declare their support for Lula or Bolsonaro.
Tebet promised that he would announce his position at the “right time”, while Gomes asked for time to speak out.
(03/10/2022)