2024-02-09 21:22:28
Keep them pesos without a “destiny” it is a mistake”fatal” for the savings, so people usually invest it immediately. Taking into account the current rate of fixed termwhich is positioned below the inflationand the dollar MEP ironing, the question arises as to which of the two options is more profitable.
Is it time to buy the MEP dollar?
Mariano Monferini, public accountant and financial advisor, believes that it is difficult to know. “To give context, in nominal terms all prices are rising and the dollar, despite recent declines, It is one more price within the economy. However, in real termsthe issue is more complicated because it is very likely that many prices will rise more than the north american currencythat is, we can go through a period of inflation in dollarssomething we are living”,
In this sense, to be covered from possible “tremors“In the economy, the expert points out that the dollar meets the aimbut we must bear in mind that, at some point, if the government is successful, the exchange rate will stabilize.
On the other hand, from Banza, he affirms to this medium that, to measure whether it is a good time or not to buy MEP dollar it must be thought from the side of the gap between CCL dollar and the official. “Currently, the CCL dollar is worth almost 50% more than the official one and this gap is used as a ‘risk’ indicator. In this sense, between December until the first week of January, it reached levels between 20 and 25%, which represented a very optimistic level, while before the gap was around 150%,” the company explains.
The CCL dollar is worth almost 50% more than the official one
In this sense, the broker states that the gap is at levels “reasonable“, according to that indicator. Likewise, with the percentage of inflation Nowadays, there is a need for a “new devaluation“so that the dollar remains high in real terms and in this way competitive.
Is it profitable to invest in a fixed term?
From Banza explain to iProfessional that the rate for fixed term deposits are located at 9% monthly and, if estimated inflation levels like those in December, it is not a good option. “Also, keep in mind that this type of tool blocks access to your savings for 30 days. In turn, the Fixed deadlines They are used as a way to liquefy the pesos,” they say.
Monferini, for his part, details that the fixed term these days does not seem like a good investment because the bowl It is very negative, that is, it is far from covering the saver once morest inflation. “It is true that covering oneself from inflation is a difficult task, because the objective of economic policy is to lower the real stock of pesos through the price rise“, he argues.
Is it better to make a fixed term or buy the MEP dollar?
From Banza they point out that the dollar MEP It is always a good tool as a way to cover yourself once morest a devaluationin addition to the fact that those who choose this form of savings feel more secure.
“On the other hand, if a fixed period is agreed to make carry trade or at a rate in pesos, there is another risk which is the rise of the exchange rate. Those people who made a fixed term at the end of December with a dollar at approximately $950, lost out with a current dollar at approximately $1,200,” they say.
The fixed term, in December, lost once morest the dollar
“They are two bets that have different risks: investing in a fixed term in pesos is more risky than buy MEP dollar by volatility that is having these days, which generates a loss of purchasing power more accelerated,” they add.
On the other hand, to maintain a certain exchange rate coverage, the alternative is usually a common investment fund with a performance similar to that offered by Fixed deadlines with a TNA of 110%, which give the possibility of redeeming that money and must include dual or linked dollar (some dollarized asset).
In parallel, Monferini considers that, for “make rate“in pesos it is better to UVA fixed term or “T 1” or “T 2” funds, with returns higher than fixed term as is the case of Schroder Renta Plus. “Likewise, I consider that, instead of buy MEPdollarize buying negotiable obligations It is a superior option, since they have the benefit of generating interest,” he concludes.
Taking these data into account, the dollar MEP is positioned as a more stable and secure alternative, especially in the event of an eventual exchange rate jump compared to the fixed term that has exchange rate risk and is systematically losing once morest inflation.
1707514346
#time #buy #MEP #dollar #fixed #term