2023-06-07 08:30:00
Of three possibilities, Sergio Massa has decided to resign to the Ministry of Economy in two of those possible scenarios. The decision will be made in the next few days and It will depend on the electoral assembly of the Frente de Todos and, of course, their place in that world. On the fifth floor of the Palacio de Hacienda there is a climate of constant expectationbecause the days of electoral definitions and market pressures will measure firepower that the head of the most important portfolio of the government of Alberto Fernandez.
Sources very close to Massa confided to PROFILE what “The chances of him continuing to lead the Ministry are very few”although there is a window of opportunity. In all cases, the unity or the rupture of the ruling party will play, inevitably, in the fate of the leader of the Renovation Front in the economic management of the Government. There is another variable which will affect the definition: the relationship with Alberto Fernándezwhich is becoming more and more tense by the hour, even when the dialogue is maintained, currently on a trickle.
Pending a ruling from the Court, the Central will insist on the stocks for Córdoba maturities
The head of the Palace of Finance will dodgeduring the next few days, public political definitions that end up corseting a short-term futureand that is why avoided the microphoneseven during his successful tour of China. “Everything is under evaluation,” they admitted from their environment and left the door open for his eventual presidential launch, despite the family limitations and daily management that he pointed out last year, when he managed to overcome the currency run in the midst of the crisis of half of the year, with the inheritance of the ex-minister Martin Guzman.
Option 1: Massa will resign if he is a candidate
the minister will leave office if the presidential plan prospers. The effects of the drought on all the variables of the Argentine economy, but especially on the one that worries the population the most, such as inflation, left Massa without an operational clamor to become the unit’s candidate. In any case, in his closest work team they trust that the control of the economic helmsman “is enough to show management capacity, governmental character and political decision” to make available to the electoral campaign.
“Step firm, look ahead and back straight”is one of the phrases that are heard within the Renovation Front, to demonstrate that the Frente de Todos needs more conviction of its electoral possibilities than new recipes. “We are a government that manages and we managed to give answers in the midst of one of the biggest crises, such as the drought, where we did not have a single tractor, despite the differences that always existed with the field. This does not mean having won any battle, but showing that the State has the capacity to act, even in bad times. Others, due to resignation or loss of power, ended their power of government before,” a source from the ministerial environment told this outlet.
Diego Giuliano, Massa’s ally: “We will continue in the FdT if he shows the will to win the elections”
Massa asks the FdT unit to start a “device” that allows explaining the actions of the economic government, perhaps the main issue on the electoral agenda that the fronts that go to the polls will face. Although he knows that the ruling party will have to face claims due to the inflationary crisis and its effect on purchasing power, the government task of Together for Change that they have in the districts in which they govern, in addition to the internal ones without peace, reduced the possibilities of that opposition sector. There the figure of the libertarian Javier Miley has further to go.
“First you need a system, three ideas, strength and order. There is a dissociated reality, which is the black economy, which is supporting consumption and the productive apparatus, and which managed to exceed all the forecasts for a drop in activity in the first half of the year. to that we must add the second link that is the tractor that nobody takes into account, Vaca Muerta”, analyzed the source consulted.
If, finally, he is a candidate, he will leave the Palacio de Hacienda to a successor who will execute his plan. there will be no double feature and the claim of the president of the Chamber of Deputies, Cecilia Moreauto the candidate Daniel Scioli: “He is an ambassador in Brazil and he has to make a decision if he is going to be a candidate or continue as an official abroad.but this situation does not correspond while he campaigns and does not get credits or development paths for Argentina ”.
Option 2: Massa will resign if there is no unit
The minister decided to achieve in June, the month of electoral definitions, close two key agreements for the future of stability in 2023: China and the International Monetary Fund. Both games will allow it to swell the reserves of the Central Bank in the face of the crisis of the scarcity of dollars left by the drought and the exchange pressures of the market due to a sudden devaluation. The first of the objectives was achieved with more yuan and promises of a dynamic relationship with the Asian giant. The second will arrive before June 24as they trust their environment.
Massa knows that this stability, however, will last as long as “the political order” can sustain it. “If we go to STEP with 5 dwarves, despite being part of the thirds scheme, the winning candidate will inevitably be the third. The next day there will be a currency run that no one is going to stop. And, obtaining resources and gaining time, to lose everything on a whim, is not an option where Sergio wants to be”, a source close to the minister confessed to PROFILE.
Massa obtained the Chinese consent to use 10,000 million dollars and contain runs
In addition, the head of the Palacio de Hacienda admitted, before some allied political leaders and other related ones, that “It is impossible to balance resources between two presidential candidates who have management power and who will demand resources”. For example, Massa fears that some delay in the distribution of games, which is unrelated to electoral politics due to the state bureaucracy itself, will end up putting him in an “uncomfortable” place. That it already happensas they admitted, between grunts, in relation to social movements: “We send the funds to (Juan) Grabois, but in the Ministry of Social Development they are sleeping and then the public claims reach the Economy”. For this reason, he will leave the portfolio when he has woven the web that will guarantee financial peace, but he will leave before a bomb explodes due to political disorder. He will measure the times well so that his departure is not responsible for the economic imbalance.
Option 3: Massa, the economy minister of the consensus candidate
They are permanence in the Government will only be feasible if the unity of action is underway and its political weight intact. Then, he will have credit in his favor for allowing the single candidate to run through a financially uneventful campaign. “It doesn’t matter if the candidate is the dog Pluto or Mickey Mouse, because the important thing is to be convinced that the ruling party has its chances intact.” to sustain himself in the government, knowing that we have overcome one of the toughest crises in the country’s history and that next year, with the countryside and Vaca Muerta, we will have the resources for fundamental solutions,” Massa told his relatives. of the Renovating Front.
The third option is the most repeated by the minister, as they confessed from their environment, but it is the least feasible. It happens that this scenario would show him stronger than a super minister, since he would have a power of order within the Government over the figure of the president himself Alberto Fernandez. The fear is that the same head of state is the driving force behind the divisions. “He is boycotting himself now, that he still has a chance to be part of the unit. It is impossible for him to accept a single candidate who will totally leave him out of the button panel”, admitted a person from the heart of massismo.
End of trip to China with trick matches with Máximo K and the negotiation with the IMF
In all cases, will need the endorsement of Vice President Cristina Kirchner, with whom he “maintains a fluid dialogue”, according to his environment. A consistent wink was the presence of the head of the Buenos Aires PJ, Máximo Kirchner, on the tour of China. “Although nominations have been announced, within Kirchnerism there is a look very much in line with Sergio,” they said on the fifth floor of the Palacio de Hacienda.
AM / ED
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