2023-07-02 03:26:00
In a country with a devastated economy, the same person who was in charge of adjusting the countless excesses, order the accounts, lead the transition, is the one that will now inevitably try to use all the resources at its disposal to accumulate political capital to reach the presidency.
Sergio Massa demanded political stability from his government as an imperative condition of the economic challenge. Now he has all the power in his fist: he has achieved that the Government, which had already offered him the administration of the present, also gives him all its expectations for the future. Massa will have to manage with himself the dramatic discussion between the reality of the economic failure that worsened and the promise of a venture.
When he asked for political stability to manage the economy, Massa seemed to threaten a complementary idea of economic stability. He asked for political consensus to adjust, the only way to contain inflation. Now that they have given him the major candidacy, it is most likely that he will run the bow: he will only apply an economic stabilization plan if they vote for him and he wins. What he asked of the Government, he now asks of the whole of society. The main success of the minister’s economic policy would have been to obtain the candidacy. A postponement of adjustment.
Massa usually uses a filler when alluding to a prioritized agenda. She likes to talk regarding a “road map.” To use her idiom, Massa’s personal roadmap now collides with the recommended roadmap for the common good. Postponing economic stabilization will only aggravate unresolved problems. Is Massa forced to work for a transition towards himself? This delay will be paid for by the country.
It is not yet written that he fails in that attempt. That is why it is convenient to analyze the context in which Massa makes her bet. In the same hours in which the minister managed to overturn the candidacies of Eduardo de Pedro and Daniel Scioli, the global balance of power found a first-order hinge: Vladimir Putin, previously the undisputed leader of expansive Russia, escaped from an internal coup perpetrated by a group of mercenaries that he thought he had under control. Putin was exposed with a fragility that affects two of his allies, significant for Argentina: China and Brazil.
The impact on Chinese diplomacy is not minor for Massa because it was the resource he found at the last minute to meet the most recent debt maturity with the Monetary Fund., who finally did not issue him the blank check that the minister expected before making his candidacy official. The national government made an unprecedented decision: it paid with yuan the equivalent of regarding 1,000 million dollars. Another 1,700 million he took out, scraping the bottom of the pot, with Special Drawing Rights, the IMF currency. The use to cancel debt of the yuan that was destined to pay for Chinese imports was authorized by the Xi Jinping regime, who knows in exchange for what. Máximo Kirchner assures that they are mere oriental generosity. Only the giant’s emergencies are known: food, connectivity, minerals, fuel.
Two bets, one winner
The other context data for Massa is the internal competition that, far from having closed, Cristina Kirchner maintains. The vice president openly exposed it in an act devised by Massa to ingratiate himself with human rights organizations and that she turned into a narrative of political gossip, with the intention of attenuating the image of dishonorable retreat that was installed in her militancy following the closure of ready.
The truth of the Milanese, According to the vice president, it is that the electoral offer of the ruling party collapsed from the moment it was outlawed with a judicial sentence. A controversial definition is barely observed what is happening in Venezuela, with the support of Lula Da Silva from Brazil: the rigid ban that Nicolás Maduro has just imposed on the opposition leader María Corina Machado. Next to that proscription, Cristina’s is a Capulí story.
But the most significant thing that Cristina exhibited is the bifurcation of strategies between her and Massa. The vice promotes a withdrawal, an electoral design of defeat that is as less catastrophic as possible. Massa threatened to blow up the economy to win the nomination, but her strategy is to win. Apparently Cristina was less concerned regarding the extortion than the intrusion; the strategic challenge. Cristina criticized the compulsion of the candidate minister for the bets where there is only one winner. The vice president knows that there is only novelty in risk. That is why she ended up justifying her own retreat as a virtue of driving in retreat: if she can’t lead order, let them at least recognize her driving disorder. She explained to the vanquished of the decimated generation that this time she does not seek to transform, but merely to reassure.
To soften that grief, the vice quoted Antonio Gramsci’s best-known aphorism, regarding the optimism of the will and the pessimism of reason. The Madrid Kirchnerist Íñigo Errejón is usually merciless with these quotes. He says that Gramsci is named by the right as a mischievous excursion into the intellectual camp of the adversary and the left uses him to appear sophisticated. A tear for a ripped.
Massa is not tickled by a Gramsci quote; Cristina used a more effective weapon for him: she returned to her thesis on the inflationary effect of the agreement with the IMF. Massa has already started with the contortions: now he says that everything possible must be done to pay the IMF and “get it out of Argentina.” As a narrative formula it is more obvious than enough: Does Massa propose to comply with the IMF to escape the economic program that they ask of him? Or take him out to manage the same plan, as he promises every time he travels to Washington?
Meanwhile, he consults with an old companion of adventures in Anses: Amado Boudou; redeemed from those negotiations in which he sent Alejandro Vandenbroele to Formosa to unscramble arranged debt.
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