US stock indexes fell last week. Losses accelerated over the weekend as the US dollar strengthened. Bets on the Federal Reserve interest rate hikes have tightened slightly after rhetoric of two FOMC voters James Bullard and Esther George. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.86% on Friday. With its previous decline and ending a negative week, the Nasdaq-100 beta high (NDX) broke a four-week winning streak. close below 2.38%
Traders will get July inflation updates through the U.S. PCE price index. Analysts expect core prices to rise 4.7 percent annually, the Fed’s preferred metric. This is down from 4.8% in June. A miss could help revive the Fed’s spin bets. But interest rate traders are eager to hear what Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Aug. 26. Powell is scheduled to speak Friday at 14:00. no. GMT
Equity traders appear ready to abandon the rally in US stocks, according to the CFTC’s Commitments of Traders (COT) report released Friday. Short positions among S&P 500 speculators were up 44k as of Aug. 16. Asian stock markets also closed lower, with the S&P Asia 50 index down 1.2 percent for the week. Factories have to shut down, Chinese tech giant Tencent reported the first drop in quarterly revenue. which affects Chinese tech stocks. Hong Kong sees more coronavirus cases Urge authorities to reopen the detention facility.
The Australian dollar, which was sensitive to China, fell more than 3% against the US dollar. Iron ore prices in China fell nearly 4 percent, worsening the Aussie dollar. Disappointing Australian employment report has boosted sales Although the interest rate market will still see a 50 basis point gain at the Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting in September. Crude oil prices closed last week. With the tightening of the Fed and China’s economic woes, it outweighs the pull of large US oil stocks.
European natural gas prices are at a record high. Europe’s drought and heat squeeze hydroelectric capacity. On Friday, Russia’s state-controlled Gazprom said it would suspend the Nord Stream pipeline to Germany later this month. Europe has made some progress in filling gas storage tanks before winter. But the impending pipeline shutdown raises another question about the energy situation, according to AGSI, the EU’s gas storage is nearly 76% full.
The Euro and British Pound were down more than 2% against the US dollar. Europe and the UK face a high recession. Partly due to soaring energy prices across Europe, elsewhere, Bitcoin prices dropped more than 10% due to accelerated risk aversion. Gold traders sell precious metals with expensive Fed bets. In addition to Jackson Hole data and US inflation, the cover of economic events is sparse. Thus, the existing risk trend remains under control.
US dollar performance vs. performance currency and gold
Basic forecast:
S&P 500, FTSE 100 Weeks Ahead: Jackson Hole Symposium in Focus
S&P 500 First Weekly Post in Month FTSE 100 Defy Gravity
Euro Forecast – EUR/USD Plunges Into Parity As US Bulls Run Amok
The euro, along with other majors, doesn’t seem to be helping in the face of the surge in the US dollar with parity – EUR / $1.000 – is unlikely to have a recent selloff.
Gold Price Forecast: Gold Bullion Helps Slow US Inflation
An update to the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index may help curb a weaker gold price. Because the report predicts inflation will slow down.
British Pound (GBP) Weekly Forecast: Hot Inflation Fuels Stagflation Fears
Bearish Sterling’s momentum is fueled by hot inflation printing and higher interest rate hike expectations.
Canadian Dollar Weekly Forecast: USD/CAD Leads U.S. Economic Data
USD/CAD will depend on the specifics of the USD next week. Because the Canadian dollar still has negative risks.
Bitcoin Ethereum Trends: BTC/USD, ETH/USD Drops By Fed
Risk assets fell this week as the US dollar strengthened in Bitcoin and Ethereum surrendered in August. US data And Jackson’s loophole can push prices in both directions.
Technical forecasts:
US Dollar Technical Forecast for Next Week: USD Rises to Resistance
The U.S. dollar rose more than 2.5% from its monthly low, with a breakthrough August peaking to its highs. Key Levels on DXY Weekly Technical Charts
S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Forecast for Next Week
Finally, the US stock market Found resistance this week, with the S&P 500 crashing into the bottom of the 200-day moving average. Will that resistance lead to a turn?
Japanese Yen Weekly Technical Forecast: Many Ranges
USD/JPY has rebounded impressively since the CPI selloff of the dollar and is now trending high for the year. AUD/JPY incl. offers a range of trading opportunities.
Gold Price & Silver Forecast – XAU/USD, XAG/USD Not So Good
The slump in gold and silver needs to stop soon, otherwise the trend from highs is likely to continue in the days/weeks to new lows.