Markets are awaiting the release of inflation data in America, today, Tuesday, amid expectations that the data will be moderate.
The report may be confusing because economists polled by Dow Jones, who forecast headline CPI decline 0.1%, are expected to rise 0.3%, excluding energy and fuels.
The report is seen as a key guidance for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision next week, but economists say it’s also important to the long-term view on interest rates because it may show whether or not some of the causes of inflation are easing. .
Inflation remains very high, but is expected to moderate in August, as gasoline prices fell, supply chains improved and the cost of travel fell.
Roger Ferguson, a former Federal Reserve vice chairman, says slowing inflation is not a prelude to a pause in 2023.
But excluding gasoline, core CPI is expected to rise by 0.3%, the same as in July. on an annual basis.
As for the Federal Reserve, the report is widely expected to confirm that it needs to continue its fight against inflation with next week’s rate hike of 0.75 percentage points, its third in a row. If the inflation data is weaker than expected, some economists say there is a chance that the Fed will raise rates by only 0.5%.
Gasoline prices are the biggest driver of the energy decline. Since peaking at $5.01 in mid-June, the average has fallen to $3.71 per gallon.
Economists say the primary effects of comparing the number to last year are behind the jump in core inflation in August.