At school, a new year begins. In the large consumption, we begin the last straight line. And, as much to say, we already know the winners of the year because it is unlikely that the next five periods (from P9 to P13) will change anything vs the Kantar balance sheet at P8 that I am publishing today. today.
To date, therefore, 4 winners: Lidl and Carrefour (with + 0.3 pt of market share since the start of the year), Leclerc and Aldi (+ 0.2 pt each). In all four cases, this can be explained by factors that will be largely at work by the end of the year (and even next year for that matter).
Leclerc and Lidl, because they are the best answer at the time
Leclerc and Lidl have their price image as their key asset. On this indicator, Lidl is the best of discounters (clearly ahead of Aldi and Netto), Leclerc the best of hypers/supers. De facto, they are, in the face of inflation, a safe haven. So Leclerc and Lidl clearly have an interest in keeping inflation at the heart of the news because it is… their best publicity.
Carrefour, because growth reflects the history
In principle, changes in market share reflect both the current situation and… the past situation! In this sense, Carrefour has an… excellent history. The student was average, he is improving, so he brings back to his parents (sorry, his shareholders) a better report card. In other words, Carrefour benefits from a favorable catch-up effect. This does not minimize the performance of the group in France. After all, Auchan also has an excellent history (understand: fertile ground to start a comeback) but still hasn’t understood that nothing will happen without better execution on the floor (or, in any case, it won’t not seen).
Aldi, because it’s still easier with the “park effect”
Contrasting situation for Aldi. Mechanically, the integration of Leader Price automatically makes the brand one of the winners of the year. No doubt, the year will be positive (on sale of PDM). But so much lower than it was legitimate to expect that it is still the least deserving of the winners. But a winner nonetheless.
