As of last July, the median of the estimates of those who participated in the previous REM survey suggested a inflation of 7.5% per month, while the data observed in that month turned out to be 7.4%. For August, the median of the estimates of the current survey was located at 6.5% monthly, while the average of the TOP-10 of the best tipsters the estimated at 6.8%.
Regarding core inflation, those who participated in the REM forecast that it would reach 94.9% yoy at the end of 2022 (4.4 pp higher than the last survey).
Likewise, the REM participants revised the inflation forecasts for 2023, placing it at 84.1% yoy (7.6 pp more than the previous REM) and for 2024 at 63.1% yoy (3.1 pp higher than the previous survey). .
Dollar
REM analysts corrected their projections for the nominal exchange rate in July. They forecast that the exchange rate will reach $179.11 per dollar in December 2022, that is, 65.7% more than at the end of 2021. That is three pesos more than in the previous survey.
Those who most accurately forecast this variable with short-term horizons projected that the average nominal exchange rate for December 2022 would be $172.46, or +68% throughout the year.
PBI
Those who participate in the REM expect real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for 2022 of 3.6% (0.2 pp more than in the previous REM). The TOP-10 of those who best forecast economic growth suggests an average increase in GDP for 2022 of 3.7% (0.4 pp higher compared to the July survey).
Regarding the seasonally adjusted quarterly variation of the GDP, for the second quarter of 2022 the REM participants estimated a growth of 0.7% se, which is 0.2 pp higher in relation to the previous survey (0.5 % I know).
The estimate for the variation corresponding to the third quarter of 2022 stood at -1.4% se Meanwhile, a contraction of 1.0% se is also projected for the fourth quarter of 2022 (when a month ago they expected a variation of -0, 7% se).
Bowl
For September 2022, those who participate in the REM forecast a BADLAR rate for private banks of 65.0%, 4.5 pp higher than the average rate registered during the month of August (60.5%).
There is evidence of a growing correction in the monthly projections, with forecasts for an increase to reach 67.6% by the end of 2022. Those who best forecast the interest rate for the short term forecast, on average, that it will be 69.6% in the last month of 2022.