Never has a far-right candidate been so close to the Élysée. But concretely, what would it change for the Belgians, to have a Marine Le Pen at the head of France?
“We tend to say that the election of Marine Le Pen is unlikely. But remember Brexit and Donald Trump. We didn’t believe it. For me, there is a real risk that she will be elected,” says François Gemenne of ULiège/Sciences Po Paris.
If this scenario were to happen, what would change for Belgians and the rest of Europeans?
“It can disrupt trade,” replies Michel Hermans, political scientist at Uliège. “Belgium, let’s not forget, is France’s third largest supplier. And in the other direction, France is our second supplier (following Germany). However, Marine Le Pen wants to defend Franco-French. For example, it can insist that the French consume French fruit rather than fruit from our Hesbaye. Under François Hollande, beers were taxed more than wines, for example”. François Gemenne moderates this last example: “At the time, beer production was much less important in France than it is today”, suggesting that the method might no longer be used.
“Marine Le Pen advocates measures of economic protectionism,” continues political scientist Pierre Verjans. “Europe prevents this in principle. But that will not prevent it from being able to make a national preference, which would lead to a reduction in Belgian imports into France”.
In terms of immigration, there would also be an impact, according to Pierre Verjans. “Marine Le Pen would clearly position herself once morest migration, with all that this may have as a consequence for other European countries”. “We can also imagine that it would practice a policy which would encourage tax exiles in Belgium to return to France. Conversely, French people might leave their country, ”describes François Gemenne.
Charles Michel in difficulty
Knowing her lack of love for Europe, the election of Marine Le Pen as president “would weaken Europe, without France leaving the Union or abandoning the Euro”, points out Michel Hermans. “In fact, France would become a second Hungary. Viktor Orban would have a powerful ally. It would be the end of the Franco-German axis with the consequence of a significant blocking of a series of European reforms, in particular at the level of Defence”, explains François Gemenne. With Marine Le Pen at the Elysée Palace, the powers of Charles Michel, President of the European Council, would probably be diminished, the same for Ursula von der Leyen at the European Commission.
NATO would also be impacted with a possible withdrawal of France as De Gaulle had done previously. Not sure that Marine Le Pen respects her program on this point. Anyway, the Alliance might “manage” this departure. Even though it has the fifth largest army in the world, France is not one of the countries most committed to NATO.
Last element that concerns us: global warming. The candidate clarified that she would not leave the Paris agreements, but warned that the Climate was not her priority at all.