TUCSON – Maricopa County, the largest county in Arizona, is an electoral treasure for Republican and Democratic presidential candidates. This November, Latinos and independents will be the key to winning it, and with it this decisive state and very likely the White House.
Known worldwide for its anti-immigrant former sheriff Joe Arpaio, who paraded immigrants in striped uniforms and pink underwear under tents in the desert, Maricopa County is now in the crosshairs of the campaigns of Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, awash in political advertising and with frequent visits from leaders like Dolores Huerta, who was there this week.
“Harris will chart a new path forward that will raise wages, lower costs for families, and ensure that everyone has the opportunity to not only survive, but thrive,” the iconic labor leader said during her appearance in a county home to three out of every five Arizonans.
“Maricopa County is definitely the county to win, the presidential candidate who wins this county is practically guaranteed victory in Arizona,” said Thom Reilly, professor at the School of Public Affairs at Arizona State University (ASU).
What you should know
- Maricopa County covers Phoenix, which has 62 percent of Arizona’s total registered voters, including about 800,000 independents, more than 850,000 Republicans and about 690,000 Democrats, as of July.
- With 50.3% of Maricopa’s votes, President Joe Biden surprisingly won the state’s 11 electoral votes from Republican Trump in 2020, giving him a big boost to his presidential victory.
- In the last four years, Republicans have gained nearly 2,000 new voters in this county.
- The National Association of Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) projects that more than 855,000 Latinos will cast ballots this November in Arizona, mirroring Hispanic turnout in 2020 and representing a 57.5% increase compared to 2016.
- The organization predicts that nearly one in four Arizona voters will be Latino (23.5%).
“A candidate who loses Maricopa County would have to sweep rural areas to have any hope of winning the state,” Reilly said.
The academic indicated that the population diversity that exists in Maricopa is something that is turning Arizona into an unpredictable state.
The increase in Latinos and people from other states, and greater participation by young people is something that, in his opinion, is transforming conservative Arizona, giving it a more purple color.
In Maricopa County, one in three residents identify as Latino, hence the struggle of both campaigns to win this vote.
For Reilly, this Latino and independent voter will undoubtedly make the difference in the upcoming elections in Maricopa and, consequently, in Arizona and the United States.
Abortion and migration, key to participation
Historically, there is a high turnout in presidential elections, which is expected to be even higher due to constitutional amendments that will decide on abortion and a drastic immigration law in the state.
The political analyst says that Harris’ nomination has undoubtedly raised greater interest among voters, both Democrats and Republicans.
Arizona was one of the first states Harris visited after winning the Democratic nomination, and last week, Trump (2017-2021) visited the state, where he again attacked the vice president on the immigration issue.
Both candidates held public events in Glendale, a city in Maricopa County about 9 miles (15 kilometers) northwest of Phoenix.
On September 4, Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, will be back in Arizona, in the city of Mesa (Maricopa)
The latest polls show the presidential race in this state to be very close, with Trump at 47% versus Harris at 44%.
“On November 5, the eyes of the country will be on Arizona and Maricopa County,” Reilly said.