March 15 US crude oil trading strategy: the wind has changed, and the bears are in charge
During the Asia-Europe session on Tuesday (March 15), U.S. crude oil continued its decline, falling more than 6% to below the 100 mark at one point, hitting a new low of $96.70 per ounce in nearly two weeks. Russia and Ukraine continued to negotiate a ceasefire with Russia and Ukraine. Expectations of positive progress in talks have boosted hopes of easing tensions in global crude markets, while China’s new lockdown to contain the coronavirus outbreak has also raised concerns regarding slowing demand. International Energy Agency (IEA) director Birol urged oil-producing countries to increase oil production, which has put pressure on oil prices significantly. However, the short-term decline is relatively large and it falls near the strong support level, so we need to beware of the possibility of short-term rebound adjustment.
Day level:Similar to the inverted “V” reversal; the KDJ dead fork signal continues, MACD forms a dead fork operation, and the bears regain the initiative. Currently, they are testing the support near the high point of 95.82 on February 14. If it falls below this support, it is understood that it will further fall to 2 On the 18th, near the low of 87.46; of course, there is still strong resistance near the 55-day moving average of 90.75.
The 99.54 position of the middle rail of the upper Bollinger Band has been transformed into the initial resistance. The resistance at the high point of 100.54 on February 24 needs to be paid attention to. If the oil price rises above this position, it will weaken the short-term bearish signal; further resistance is around the 5-day moving average of 104.81. , The strong resistance is near the 10-day moving average at 110.36, which needs to be recovered before oil prices can regain their gains.
(Daily chart of the main US crude oil contract)
resistance:99.54；100.54；103.63；104.81；110.35；
support:96.70；95.82；93.17；90.75；87.46；
Short-term trading strategy:Before the geopolitical situation deteriorates once more, the main focus is to be cautious regarding shorting on rallies, and more cautious on shorts on dips.
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