- A study published by the journal Nature indicates that the number of hot and dry days in the Zulian region has grown considerably since 1971, which also increases the risk of fires.
Maracaibo has always been recognized for its high temperatures. Even because of the jokes about being “the coldest city in Venezuela” due to the number of fans and air conditioners in each of its houses. However, with heat peaks that this year have exceeded 50 degrees Celsius of thermal sensation, as happened at the beginning of September, it is a situation that is no longer a joke.
Different scientific studies have proven that in the context of the climate change that the world is currently experiencing, temperatures in the state of Zulia and its surroundings have been increasing significantly, becoming one of the hottest and driest spots in South America.
An article published by the magazine Nature On September 26, he records this. In South America becomes warmer, drier, and more flammablewarn that climate change is worsening the frequency, intensity and impacts of extreme weather events. The current global average temperature increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius is expected to double in some areas.
“South America has also experienced severe impacts from the concurrence of hot, dry, high fire risk conditions (i.e., dry compounds). Although the increase in temperatures in the subcontinent closely follows the global path, warming and drought have been more pronounced in some regions,” he points out.
In the case of the region, it points to three areas: the northern Amazon (Brazil), the Gran Chaco (Paraguay, Bolivia and Brazil) and the Lake Maracaibo basin (Venezuela).
More hot days
The study, led by researchers Sarah Feron and Raúl Cordero, analyzed the number of days with abnormal peaks of heat, drought and flammability for each season of the year between 1971 to 2000 and from 2001 to 2022. They also compared these values with the behavior of the El Niño phenomenon to measure its possible specific impact on the affected regions.
While the Amazon and the Gran Chaco have experienced considerable climate changes in recent decades, the text ensures that the Maracaibo basin has been the point that has warmed and dried the most since 1971. The results showed that the days in which Hot, dry, high fire risk conditions increased from less than 20 annually to more than 70 in the last two decades.
Specifically, an increase in hot days to more than 60 per year was reported. Meanwhile, the days of drought also exceeded 50 annually. One of the most worrying findings was the increase in days with high fire risk. They reached 120 days a year in Maracaibo, when before the 1990s it used to be less than 40.
“Although the occurrence of dry compounds in the Maracaibo region has increased throughout the year, the increase appears to be slightly more pronounced in the DJF season (December, January and February),” he notes.
At risk
The article highlights that despite being home to the second most populated city in Venezuela and being the headquarters of the country’s main oil industry, around 38% of the Lake Maracaibo basin continues to be covered by forests. However, this coexistence is highly dangerous in a context in which the risk of forest fires is increasing in the region.
“The exposure of relatively large population groups living in urban-forest interfaces increases the risks of fires becoming disasters,” he mentions.
On the other hand, the increase in dry days brings with it losses for agriculture and livestock that are practiced especially to the south of the lake. Already in August 2023, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) estimated partial or total losses in the arid areas of Zulia due to drought due to the El Niño phenomenon.
He indicated that this would mainly affect small farmers and indigenous populations, especially in Venezuela’s La Guajira. By extension, the drought also affects cattle, sheep and goats, due to the depletion of grass and water. A strong contrast with the rainy season, when floods occur that also cause the loss of crops.
What is the El Niño phenomenon?
It is a climatic event that occurs due to the warming of the waters of the Pacific Ocean in cycles of approximately four to seven years. Each time it occurs, it alters the world’s circulation patterns, changing currents or unleashing storms. Due to the trade winds, it also sends all the accumulated energy to the Intertropical Convergence Zone, causing heat waves and droughts. Its opposite is the La Niña phenomenon, which causes cold fronts.
Likewise, global warming causes higher temperatures in the oceans, increasingly intensifying the power of El Niño. The Nature study points out that the worst peaks of heat and drought in the Maracaibo region coincide with the El Niño pattern, being responsible for several fires there and in the Amazon.
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