Fundamental Analysis of MAPS GROUP as of 09/27/24
Judgment: Very interesting
Prezzo: 2.48€
Long-term target: 4.90€
Summary – 1H24 results confirm the scalability of the business model
1H results significantly improving, in line with expectations. The 1H results confirm the double-digit growth of the top line and a clear recovery in margins: revenues +13% YoY to €14.7 million, adj. EBITDA +57% YoY to €3.2 million, with margin recovering by 620bps to 21.6%, net profit +61% YoY to €0.6 million. The revenue mix also improved, with the product component rising to 86% from 83% in 1H23. We believe that these results, driven by improvements in the performance of all BUs, strengthen the degree of confidence in our FY24 top line and margin estimates: revenues +9% to €30.2 million, adj. EBITDA +32% to €6.6mn, margin +370bps to 21.8%.
Analyses
Net debt down significantly, better than expected. Net financial debt, equal to €7.9 million, decreased by €4.6 million from the beginning of the year, benefiting from a €1.7 million capital increase at the end of June for the exercise of the remaining warrants in circulation and an operating cash flow of €4.4 million, higher than expected thanks to the excellent performance of working capital management, which freed up €1.8 million of liquidity. This leads us to revise our net debt estimate at the end of the year downwards to €7.3 million from €8.3 million.
Maps Healthcare, revenues accelerating and margins clearly recovering. The Maps Healthcare BU (60% of consolidated turnover), which in 1H23 had suffered a slowdown in revenues (+6% YoY to €7.6mn) and a 640bps drop in adj. EBITDA margin (20.4% from 26.8% in 1H22) mainly due to some difficulties encountered in the integration of I-Tel (both from an organizational point of view and from a commercial offering point of view), has started to grow again at sustained rates ( revenues +17% YoY), with a clear recovery of the adj. EBITDA margin, which rose to 25.3% (+490bps), confirming the scalability of the business model based on proprietary software products and the validity of the actions undertaken to integrate the acquired companies.
Maps Energy cuts losses and acquires a major new customer. The Maps Energy BU (7% of consolidated turnover), despite delays in the launch of government incentives for Energy Communities and for Transition 5.0, increased revenues by 16% YoY to €1.1 million and improved the gross margin to 37.8 % from 4.9% in 1H23, reducing the red to adj. level. EBITDA at €0.1 million from €0.3 million in 1H23. In July the BU won Edison’s tender for the four-year supply of its “ROSE” platform for Energy Communities, consolidating its leadership position in the segment.
Change in Estimates
Review of estimates. This leads us to revise Maps Energy’s revenue estimates upwards by 5% for 2025 (€4.4 million from €4.2 million), by 18% for 2026 (€6.7 million from €5.7 million) and by 27% for 2027 (€9.3mn from €7.3mn).
Our View
VERY INTERESTING opinion (INTERMONT: BUY) confirmed; TP at €4.90 from €4.10. The greater growth expected in the coming years in the Energy sector, which leads to an upward revision of the consolidated EBITDA 2025-2027 of 4% (€7.9mn from €7.6mn), 12% (€10.0mn from €8.9mn) respectively and 14% (€11.6 million from €10.2 million), the higher free cash flow estimated for 2024 (€3.5 million from €2.3 million) and the re-rating of approximately 13% of the sector multiples (EV/EBITDA 11.9 x on 2024 and 9.8x on 2025) lead us to revise our TP upwards by 20% to €4.90 from €4.10, confirming the BUY recommendation on the stock.
Estimates of the main financial data
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