The statements of a senior European official regarding fears of social unrest in Europe, due to the energy crisis, highlighted the extent to which the world can do without fossil fuels.
Frans Timmermans, Vice-President of the European Commission, Head of Climate Policy for the Union, warned in an interview with The Guardian newspaper From the risks of “extremely intense conflict” in Europe due to the energy crisis, stressing the need for a short-term return to fossil fuels to avoid the risk of “civil unrest”.
The EU’s second-highest official attributed the threats, which he said were “deliberate” to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, and said energy security should take precedence over the climate crisis.
He said: “If our society descends into a very strong conflict because there is no energy, we will definitely not achieve our (climate) goals. We certainly will not get to what we need, if the energy shortage leads to severe disruption in our societies, and we need to make sure that people They will not suffer from the cold next winter.”
“I’ve been in politics long enough, more than 30 years, to realize that people are more concerned regarding the current crisis, not regarding the long-term crisis, and if we don’t address the current crisis, we will definitely be off track with the long-term crisis,” he added.
The senior official hopes to reassure Europeans, by November 1, that they will not face a crisis in heating their homes this winter.
“I honestly believe that if we can’t provide this guarantee, society will be in a state of stress, as it is everywhere because of high energy prices, inflation and fast food prices, due to the uncertainty caused by the war,” he said.
And he considered that “Putin is using all the means he has to stir up discord in our societies, so we have to prepare ourselves for a very difficult period.”
Calling for the use of coal, he said, “If we were just saying no more coal for now, we would not be convincing and would contribute to increasing tensions within our community.”
Energy prices have risen around the world as a result of the Covid pandemic and the war in Ukraine, and Europe has been particularly affected, due to its dependence in general on Russian gas, by regarding 40 percent, especially Germany.
Back to fossil fuels
Because of the decline in Russian gas flows, the German government began producing electricity from coal-fired power plants, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz changed the position of the “Group of Seven” on banning foreign investment in gas projects, to help explore new fossil fuel fields in countries developing.
The European Parliament voted to classify some gas and nuclear power projects as “clean” energy for investment purposes, much to the chagrin of climate activists.
The European official, Timmermans, who is leading the EU’s climate negotiations, announced his support for expanding fossil fuel exploration in Africa despite warnings from civil society leaders.
“With the massive shortage of fossil fuels, how can you say to anyone with fossil fuels, ‘You shouldn’t take advantage of that?’,” he said. It exploits gas. “This would be hypocrisy.”
The official downplayed expectations for the upcoming Cop27 climate conference, scheduled in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, in November, and to make new promises on reducing emissions to 1.5 degrees Celsius, which was approved by the Paris climate agreement in 2015.
The future of energy security
The economic writer, Daniel Yergin, explained on The Wall Street Journal websiteHow did the world shift from a state of reassurance of the existence of energy sources to a state of crisis.
He explained that public concern regarding energy security had “dispelled over the past decade”, before the recent energy crisis caused an increase in inflation and exacerbated feelings of anger among consumers.
Many observers believed that oil demand had peaked in 2019, and that it would be quickly replaced by renewables, and low demand during pandemic lockdowns appears to have validated this assessment.
However, this perception is a “contrary to reality”, and demand for oil and gas has rebounded with the end of the shutdowns and the revival of economies, while demand has not been able to keep pace, due in large part to the lack of investment in traditional energy sources.
In his article, Yergin says that strong demand for oil and weak supply paved the way for the global energy crisis that began to emerge last fall.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine turned the energy and economic crisis into a geopolitical one, driving up prices even more.
For half a century, Russia, and before that the Soviet Union, has been promoting itself as a “reliable supplier” of oil and natural gas, especially to Europe.
This idea was widely accepted on the continent on the grounds that interdependence would benefit both sides through what the Germans called “change through trade”.
Germany was so confident in this relationship that, in 2011, it decided to stop the nuclear power industry, which provided a quarter of its electricity needs at the time.
The writer believes that Russia, following the invasion of Ukraine, assumed that Europe would eventually have no choice but to accept its invasion of Ukraine, but began to search for alternative sources.
“Thus, countries that previously paid little attention to energy security have been forced to urgently look for reliable alternative supplies.”
Hurdles
But the writer points out that the transition to clean energy will take some time and will solve only part of the problem, and the transition to renewable energy will not be possible without energy security, “which requires, at least for the next several decades, access to a diverse and reliable range of energy sources. “.
He points out that no country is making a quick and resolute transition from Russian energy dependence like Germany, which has begun building several LNG facilities, something it has refused to do for decades and has allowed coal-fired plants to restart to shore up energy supplies before winter.
In France, whose president, Emmanuel Macron, has promised the idea of closing 14 nuclear reactors and reducing the country’s dependence on nuclear energy, he is currently calling for the construction of six new nuclear reactors and possibly eight more.
In the United Kingdom, the government has given the green light to develop a new gas field in the North Sea.
European countries sent missions to the United States and Africa in search of more oil, gas and coal.
The European Union encourages the development of eastern Mediterranean gas fields in Israel and Egypt as an alternative to Russian energy.
In the US, President Joe Biden has put the transition to renewables at the center of his agenda, but with gasoline prices rising, his administration has urged companies to produce more oil and gas and refine more gasoline and diesel fuel.
The Energy Information Administration expects US oil production to rise by 800,000 barrels per day throughout the year.
The writer expects it to get worse, over the next few months, for energy security, with Putin escalating the energy war, increasing demand in China for oil following ending the closures, and increasing the imbalance between supply and demand.
The books had warned, during a symposium held in April 2021, that the transition to a zero-emissions economy “will take time, and will not happen overnight.”
“It took five decades of wind and solar energy to take its place and reduce costs, and it took at least a century for electric cars to gain ground,” Yergin said at the Edison Electric symposium.
“We know what we have to do to 2050 but how to get there is not clear,” Yergin said.