On February 8, 2022, the Blazers and the Clippers reached a trade agreement to send away Norman Powell and Robert Covington in exchange for Eric Bledsoe, Keon Johnson, Justise Winslow and the second-round pick. When everyone focuses on Joe Cronin’s poor operation, they ignore KJ’s unfathomable potential. It wasn’t until the summer league that KJ played his worth, which also made me fall in love with this 21-year-old first-round pick.
Keon Johnson is the eleventh player in our Blazers rotation. The main contributions on the court now include three-pointers, defense, and the 3D players we know well. Let’s start with the three-pointer: When KJ played in the NCAA, he was not good at three-pointers. When he played in Tennessee, his three-pointer percentage was only 27%. After the draft, when the Clippers first started, the shooting percentage was similar. When I was first traded to the Blazers, I didn’t expect him to contribute from the perimeter. Especially in the college three-point shooting rate is poor, to the farther NBA three-point line, it is understandable to adapt to the three-point distance.
But in the tank period of the Blazers, even though there were no outside players on the field, KJ still made 34.8% of his outside shots in the case of poor space. Although it is not excellent compared to the league average, for a player who does not have a three-point shot in college, this kind of improvement is already remarkable. After one year of summer league, KJ’s three-point shooting percentage reached 36.4% (1.1/2.8) this season. Among them, Catch-and-Shoot three-pointers have reached 38.7%, and Wide-Open three-pointers have a hit rate of 47.4%.
Another skill that KJ relies on for a living is defense. His defense is already good, especially the perimeter defense is already elite. Under KJ’s defense, the opponent’s outside shooting percentage was as low as 28.6%. Although the number of samples is small, it can be seen from the game that KJ’s defense is indeed genuine. He keeps his center of gravity very low when defending. When defending against the ball, he can not only press the dribble; when encountering a pick-and-roll, he can easily go around;
In off-ball defense, KJ’s innate sense of court space also allows him to perceive the positions of the other nine players on the court. His interception instinct is very good, he can foresee the opponent’s passing route, and set up traps to ambush the ball. KJ’s awareness of changing defenses can also be derived from the sense of space, which can predict the team’s defensive loopholes, fill up for teammates in advance, and even change defenses in advance. When KJ is on the court, it is rare to see an open shot from the opponent.
Not to mention his passing ability is quite underrated. As a sophomore, KJ had excellent passing instincts. When he has the ball, he is always observing the movement of each teammate on the court and judging which teammate is open. Although it must be said that his passing is quite easy to be set, and the passing accuracy is not very good, it is easy to cause mistakes. But for the 20-year-old, as long as he shows his passing vision, assists and turnovers are better than these data.
It can be seen from the above paragraphs that as a sophomore, KJ is a player with a very high golf quotient.
The scary thing is that he is not known for his golf quotient or 3D attributes in the draft, but for his physical fitness. Before KJ entered the industry, his physical fitness was repeatedly hyped, especially his unprecedented 48-inch bounce. How terrifying is his physical ability? His standing jump at the time was 41.5 inches, which was exactly the same as the 41.5 inches of Kennedy Chandler, the first runner-up in the 22 draft. The difference was that KJ didn’t have a run-up.
Therefore, he can become a qualified 3D rotation player without relying on physical fitness. Wouldn’t it be great if he integrated physical fitness into his playing style?
Yes, the premise is that his dribbling should be practiced well. KJ in college hardly has any dribbling ability; since he entered the industry, he was not given the right to hold the ball in the Clippers, and the ball was in the hands of other Mesozoic ball holders, so naturally there was not much growth in dribbling. But since the Trail Blazers tank period, the coach has directly characterized KJ as a ball-handling combo guard. KJ’s ball control has been experimented for half a season, and I think it has grown. At least basic dribbling is okay, and there are even some dribble-drawing rounds in summer league.
But the defensive pressure encountered by KJ in the summer league is relatively large. After all, the summer league is an opportunity to show themselves. Everyone is working hard, so KJ is under a lot of matchup pressure. At that time, his dribbling was prone to mistakes. However, in NBA games, since he often plays with either Simons or Lillard, KJ’s defensive pressure is naturally absorbed by the host. In the future, it will also be observed whether he can maintain a stable dribble to create opportunities when facing defenses.
Back to what the title asks: where is his ceiling? I mean, I don’t know. Trail Blazers coach Chauncey Billups’ rotation is too rigid, and every game is 9 people in rotation to the end. Only when the players in front fail to play can it be the turn of the young players behind to make up. KJ’s rotation time is too unstable. He can only get about 15 minutes of playing time if other players are injured.
Remember one game where KJ was brought in with 29 seconds left in the first quarter. After making a three-pointer, the first quarter was over, and from the second quarter to the end of the game, he never played again. For young people, this kind of chance to play game after game will hurt their confidence and suppress their room for growth.
Keon Johnson has great talent, and now he has the skills to survive and show steady progress, how can you not love him? It’s just that he can play it in the end? Who can tell? Maybe only Chauncey Billups.