2023-08-31 15:31:00
(Source: Oriental IC)
Economic Observation Network reporter Tian Guobao “If you sincerely want to buy, you can bring up any difficulties, and we will help you apply to the leader.” On the morning of August 30, at the sales office of a real estate project in Chaoyang District, Beijing, Xiaojie, a salesperson, told the tenants, “Recognize the house. The policy of “not subscribing to loans” is regarding to be implemented, “it is a good time to buy at this time.”
According to Xiaojie, the preferential discounts of the project are closely related to the rhythm of the down payment of the home buyers. The shorter the time to get the down payment together, the more the discounts will be. Once the policy of “recognize the house but not the loan” is implemented, the project party can guarantee that the home buyers can enjoy the new policy in the down payment. And the discounts on mortgage interest rates, “the original discounts will not be canceled when the new policy is implemented.”
The policy of “recognizing housing and subscribing loans” began in 2010. Since then, with the ups and downs of the property market, this policy has been implemented and canceled many times. The last time the policy of “recognition of housing and subscribing loans” was implemented in 2017. hour. According to the policy, as long as there is a house in this city under the name and there is a record of mortgages in the whole country, the down payment and mortgage interest rate will be implemented according to the second set.
On August 25, 2023, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Central Bank, and the State Administration of Financial Supervision jointly issued a document announcing the promotion of the implementation of policies and measures for the purchase of first-home loans “recognize the house but not the loan”. Before the deadline, many cities such as Chengdu, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have begun to implement the policy of “recognizing the house but not the loan”.
On the evening of August 31, the central bank and the State Administration of Financial Supervision jointly issued the “Notice on Adjusting and Optimizing Differentiated Housing Credit Policies”, adjusting the minimum down payment ratio for first-time commercial loans to 20%, and the down payment ratio for second-home commercial loans is not low. At the same time, the lower limit of the commercial loan interest rate for the second set of housing is adjusted to not be lower than the quoted market interest rate of the corresponding term loan by 20 basis points.
On the same day, the central bank and the State Administration of Financial Supervision also jointly issued the “Notice on Relevant Matters Concerning Reducing the Interest Rate of the Existing First Home Loan”. To replace the original housing loan, the interest rate of the new housing loan will be a little bit higher than the quoted interest rate in the loan market.
On the basis of “recognizing the house but not the loan”, the regulatory authorities once once more lowered the down payment ratio and the mortgage interest rate, and reduced the interest rate of the first set of stock housing loans through mortgage replacement. To a certain extent, the pressure on home buyers is reduced, and the bargaining chip in the property market window period is further increased.
Xiaojie said that her real estate company has high hopes for the implementation of the new policy, and called a meeting of the national city marketing directors to the headquarters, requiring all projects to start with the implementation of the policy of “recognizing the house but not the loan”, and do everything possible to increase the intensity of sales. ” Although we have always attached great importance to sales work, this time the emphasis is more than ever before.”
In fact, it is not just Xiaojie Company. Most real estate companies believe that the implementation of the policy of “recognizing the house but not the loan” can release a batch of demand suppressed by high down payment. How to seize this wave of demand has become the top priority. A person in charge of marketing at a real estate company said: “We require all projects to formulate targeted marketing plans with only one goal: selling houses.”
window
Although the policy of “recognizing a house but not a loan” has been loosened in cities such as Hangzhou before, there has been no sign of it in first-tier cities until the second half of this year. According to news from Xinhua News Agency on July 27, Ni Hong, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, held a symposium for enterprises, emphasizing the further implementation of policies and measures such as “personal housing loans” and “recognized houses but not loans”.
On August 25, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Central Bank, and the State Administration of Financial Supervision jointly issued the “Notice on Optimizing the Standards for the Identification of Housing Units in Personal Housing Loans” (hereinfollowing referred to as the “Notice”), providing support for the implementation of the policy of “recognizing houses but not loans” in first-tier cities. The basis has been established, and the green light of “recognizing houses but not loans” is fully open.
From August 29th, Chengdu officially began to implement the policy of “recognizing the house but not the loan”, but it is relatively obscure. It just re-identifies the households without houses. As long as they do not have their own housing in Chengdu, they are all recognized as households without houses. , It is equivalent to implementing the policy of “recognizing the house but not the loan” in disguise.
On August 30, Guangzhou issued documents related to the implementation of the “Notice”, becoming the first first-tier city to clearly implement the policy of “recognizing houses but not loans”. According to the policy, the down payment ratio of households without housing in Guangzhou has been reduced from 40% for ordinary housing and 70% for non-ordinary housing to 30%; the mortgage interest rate has been reduced from the previous 4.8% to 4.2%.
On August 31, Shenzhen followed Guangzhou and issued a document on the implementation of the “Notice”. For households without housing but with loans, the down payment ratio was reduced from 50% for ordinary residences and 60% for non-ordinary residences to 30%; mortgage interest rates were reduced from 4.8%. to 4.5%. Greatly lowered the threshold for buying a house.
The Economic Observation Network has learned from many sources that Beijing’s policy of “recognizing houses but not loans” has been formed and is in the stage of internal consultation. It is expected to be officially released in early September. Economic Observation Network has not yet learned of Shanghai’s progress in this regard, but according to the judgments of all parties, Shanghai is expected to follow up.
According to the Guangzhou-Shenzhen “recognize the house but not the loan” plan, when a resident family (including the borrower, spouse and minor children) applies for a loan to buy a house, as long as the family member has no house in the local area, regardless of whether the loan has been used to purchase a house, the financial institution will follow the The housing credit policy is implemented for the first set of houses.
For the outside world, the implementation of the policy of “recognize the house but not the loan” is more interpreted as a good or a bad news, but Wang Kai prefers to regard it as an opportunity or a window period. The key is that the policy has been implemented, and what good solutions can you come up with.”
Wang Kai is the regional marketing director of the top ten real estate companies. He said that selling a house is the same as making an investment. Any policy or news is a window, and a targeted marketing plan needs to be formulated. “Our internal meetings often emphasize that there is no need to You make judgments, as long as you take the plan, because your judgment is included in the plan.”
Like Xiaojie’s company, Wang Kai’s company also attaches great importance to the implementation of the policy of “recognize the house but not the loan”. Although they also know that these policies will not fundamentally change the direction of the property market, they will not be without any troubles, ” In fact, many people, including those around us, cannot buy a house because the down payment is too high.”
A variable factor worthy of attention is that the current market confidence and expectations are not the same as in the past few years. Even so, most real estate companies still believe that following the implementation of the new policy, a batch of demand can be released and a wave of market transactions will be driven. “What is uncertain is how long the market will last, three days or three months?”
What is uncertain is uncertain, but what is certain is that the implementation of “recognize the house but not the loan” is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for all real estate companies. On the one hand, the policy can reduce the down payment, so that the threshold for buying a house has dropped significantly, especially for replacement (including replacement in other places); on the other hand, the mortgage loan interest rate has dropped, and the total cost of buying a house has dropped.
Wang Kai said that now that the central government’s document has been issued, the local government will soon follow up. Local governments, especially first-tier cities, need to evaluate the consequences of the policy and coordinate with financial institutions. Fast, and some cities are slow to implement.”
judgment
At present, the down payment ratio of the first house in Beijing is 35% for ordinary residences and 40% for non-ordinary residences; the down payment ratio for second ordinary residences is 60% and the down payment ratio for non-ordinary residences is 80%. The loan interest rate for the first home is 4.75%, and for the second home is 5.25%. From a national perspective, Beijing is one of the cities with the highest mortgage interest rates.
Beijing’s ordinary residential standards were determined in 2014. The total price within the Fifth Ring Road is less than 4.68 million yuan; If the total price is less than 2.81 million yuan, it can be identified as an ordinary residence, and if it exceeds this standard, it is a non-ordinary residence.
Xiaojie introduced that due to the continuous rise in housing prices in the past 10 years, there are not many new houses in Beijing that meet the requirements of ordinary residences, showing a comprehensive non-generalization trend. That is to say, in the process of purchasing a house, most of the housing sources need to pay the down payment according to the standard of non-ordinary housing, which greatly increases the threshold for purchasing a house.
Taking a house with a total price of 8 million yuan as an example, the down payment ratio of the second set is as high as 6.4 million yuan, and the loan is 1.6 million yuan. “Unless you buy one for another, how many people can afford the 6.4 million yuan down payment”, Xiaojie said that among the clients she usually contacts, many are unable to buy or change houses because of the high down payment.
If the policy of “recognizing a house but not a loan” is implemented, the threshold for some qualified home buyers will be greatly reduced. For the same house with a total price of 8 million yuan, the down payment has been reduced by half to 3.2 million yuan. “If you don’t have enough money, you can pay 40% of the down payment, and if you have a lot of money, you can also pay 80% of the down payment. Buyers have more choices. Now they can only choose 80%”.
Moreover, in addition to the large down payment space, the mortgage interest rate has also dropped significantly. The same house with a total price of 8 million yuan is an example. After 80% of the down payment, the remaining 1.6 million yuan needs to be loaned. According to the calculation of equal principal and interest over a 30-year period, the interest paid for the first house is 180,000 yuan less than that of the second house; if the down payment is 40 %, the interest paid less than 500,000 yuan.
Regardless of the down payment threshold or the total cost of buying a house, the benefits of “recognizing a house but not a loan” to home buyers are obvious. As suppliers in real estate transactions, how real estate companies view the New Deal and its impact is not only related to the direction of marketing strategies for real estate companies, but also to the maximization of benefits.
Previously, it was reported that some projects on sale planned to cancel the preferential discount following the implementation of the policy of “recognizing the house but not the loan”, so as to realize the price increase in disguise. Wang Kai thinks it is unlikely. Not only does his company have no plan to cancel the preferential discount, but it also reserves a batch of preferential plans that can be released at any time to achieve more transactions.
From his communication with his peers, he found that most real estate companies have made sufficient preparations for this policy. “Everyone knows that the implementation of the New Deal will release a batch of demand; but it is also clear that this batch of demand is limited. More sincerity at the project level is needed to attract customers,” Wang Kai said.
Regarding the specific preferential discounts reserved, Wang Kai kept secret, but said that no matter in terms of the number of preferential discounts or cooperation with external channel partners, they are unique in the history of their company. “Especially for some of the projects that are difficult to sell, the price will be broken directly.”
According to him, his company adopts “one project, one policy”, and different cities, different locations, and different projects implement different discounts. Some high-quality projects that sell well generally have relatively few discounts; while projects in low-level cities with a slow sell-off cycle are liquidated “at any cost, regardless of cost”.
“Our goal is very clear, and the main line is to sell,” Wang Kai said. The implementation of the policy of “recognizing houses but not loans” is to some extent regarded as the “dongfeng” of marketing strategy. There is a clear judgment, the second is to have a wealth of promotional means.
“When the policy is implemented, you must have a weapon that you can use.” Wang Kai introduced that following Ni Hong released the policy news in his speech, they began to formulate targeted marketing strategies. After the three ministries and commissions officially issued a document, “Our marketing strategy It is basically in place, which city will be implemented first, and which city’s project will be implemented first.”
market
The project that Xiaojie is responsible for sales will open in October 2022, with a total of more than 1,200 suites, and the overall sell-through rate is around 40%. The sell-through rate of the first phase is close to 70%. Around 20%. Under the current real estate market in Beijing, the project sales situation is relatively good.
“Our existing discounts are relatively good. If you pay the down payment at three nodes, you can enjoy three 22% discounts,” Xiaojie said. The three nodes are 10% for three days, 30% for seven days, and one Pay off the remaining down payment within the month. Unfortunately, the full discount is not available to most buyers.
According to Xiaojie, judging from the sales of the first phase of the project, the average sales discount is less than 2%, and the biggest discount offered by her company is 6% of the total price. We can’t afford so much down payment at once, and the longest down payment period we give is 6 months.”
The person in charge of the impact of the above-mentioned real estate companies said that following the Spring Festival this year, due to the backlog of demand, the transaction volume has rebounded sharply in the short term, but the number of visitors has been relatively sluggish. “From April, the number of visitors began to decline sharply, especially in some second-tier cities. , directly dropped by regarding 60%, and the first-tier cities are relatively better.”
According to his introduction, the decline in transactions in June was relatively large, and there was a relatively large decline in July, especially in markets such as Guangzhou and Hangzhou. Including Chengdu, Nanjing and Wuhan, the decline is not small.”
The company where the marketing director works is mainly located in first- and second-tier cities. Overall, the number of visitors in August dropped by regarding 30% month-on-month, and regarding 70% year-on-year; the transaction volume dropped by regarding 10% month-on-month, and more than 30% year-on-year. Moreover, this achievement was achieved at the expense of profit.
The impact of the policy of “recognizing a house but not a loan” on the market has actually been traced. In November 2022, following Hangzhou implemented the policy of “recognizing houses but not loans”, the sales of commercial housing in three weeks increased by 235% month-on-month, and the sales amount in November increased by 113%. The market lasted for two to three months.
But now the market is different. At the end of 2022, it is difficult for Wang Kai and other marketing directors of real estate companies to get accurate information on how much real demand the policy of “recognizing houses but not loans” can bring to the market and how long the market will last. Answer. They are generally calmer regarding policy implications.
The person in charge of the marketing of the above-mentioned real estate companies judged that if the policy of “recognizing houses but not loans” can maintain a stable market for two to three months, the property market is expected to bottom out at the end of the year and stabilize. “If you want to rise, you need macroeconomic support, but It should not continue to drop, as long as the market stabilizes, expectations and confidence will gradually stabilize.”
For real estate companies, the most worrying thing is the downturn. Even if the decline is small, if it continues to decline, it will cause serious obstacles to the formulation of future strategies; if it stabilizes, even if it stabilizes at an unoptimistic level, ” At least know what to do next,” said the above-mentioned marketing director.
Wang Kai said that in the next few months of the year, the fight in the real estate market will be even more tragic. “Real estate companies that guarantee cash will ship at any cost, and other real estate companies can only follow suit. They may fall into a new round of price wars. It’s also a good thing for homebuyers.”
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