Luis Vicente León in Nation Perspective 2024: In Venezuela a negotiation course of will likely be essential after 28J

By Osman Rojas Durán

The negotiation will likely be an inevitable course of in Venezuela, whatever the outcomes obtained after the presidential election on July 28, in accordance with the evaluation made by Luis Vicente León, economist and president of Datanalisis, throughout his participation in Perspectiva País 2024, the cycle of conversations organized by Medianalisis and Centro Gumilla.

On the occasion held on Friday, June 21, “los potential eventualities for 28J”, date of the vote to elect a brand new Venezuelan president. It was moderated by Andrés Cañizález, director of Medianalysis and by the political scientist Piero Trepiccione, deputy director of the Gumilla Heart.

“If we go to the election and (President Nicolás) Maduro achieves that magic of changing into a majority on the votes, being a minority on the preferences, I consider that we’re going to find yourself with worldwide strain to barter and if the opposition wins, the identical factor will occur. identical. We nonetheless should go to barter as a result of Maduro will nonetheless have 6 months left within the authorities, controlling the establishments, the navy, the cash and the facility,” León mentioned when reflecting on what might occur after the elections.

Among the many eventualities analyzed by the specialist, the political value of a potential departure of Nicolás Maduro from energy, the potential for suspending the presidential election and the electoral engineering methods that the ruling social gathering might implement so as to add votes stand out regardless of the widespread discontent within the inhabitants. .

León additionally warned that the context previous to the electoral course of and the ultimate outcome should be separated, that’s, between what’s being seen and what the end result could also be.

7 out of 10 Venezuelans need a change, however there will likely be a semi-competitive election

Luis Vicente León considers that, in contrast to earlier processes, on this presidential election the opposition has an actual probability of profitable, though he highlights that the steadiness remains to be in favor of the official sector on account of completely different variables linked to the electoral course of.

“Thus far there are not any surprises, there’s a important progress in common assist for Edmundo González Urrutia as a result of he’s the unitary candidate of the so-called Venezuelan institutional opposition and he additionally has the energy of María Corina Machado, winner of the Main Election, and in addition of the normal events.” He’s a favourite candidate, past the determine who was beforehand unknown however represents the elemental worth of unity.”

In León’s opinion, what occurred with González Urrutía’s candidacy is a mirrored image of the will for change in Venezuela. “Seven out of 10 Venezuelans need a change in Venezuela; So, if 70% of the inhabitants desires a change of presidency and the traditional opposition achieves a unitary candidate, that implies that González’s determine has the assist of the bulk.”

Nonetheless, he clarified that we’re headed for a non-competitive or semi-competitive election, relying on what occurs within the subsequent 35 days till the date scheduled for the vote.

“A semi-competitive election is an election the place the facility controls the establishments, controls the sources, controls communication and the media, controls the electoral registry, mobilization, strain and is prepared to make use of it. That’s the reason he mentioned that there’s nothing new in some info recorded thus far and that they’re a part of the electoral engineering that the federal government often applies.

Even so, the opposition decides to take part “as a result of it believes that with its energy, no matter these processes of abuse of energy or imbalance, it might win. Some have achieved it like (Alejandro) Toledo towards (Alberto) Fujimori in Peru.”

The price of departure

Added to this situation is the “value of leaving” energy for Nicolás Maduro. “The benefits that the opposition now has don’t clear up the nice downside that the federal government faces: the infinite value of leaving, with 15 million {dollars} hanging over its head, accusations of crimes towards humanity and drug trafficking.”

On this sense, Luis Vicente León explains that the suspension of the elections or the strict software of electoral engineering to discourage voters can’t be dominated out, as a result of “the federal government’s most well-liked situation is to go to an election.”

“Electoral engineering is utilized as a result of clearly you wish to transfer one thing. There may be the problem of public sale operations on the finish of the day, assisted voting and vote filling, however that doesn’t change a distinction of greater than 20 share factors (in favor of the opposition), ”he assured.

Then again, the specialist expressed that on voting day it’s estimated that structural abstention will stay at a minimal of 20% amongst Venezuelans who’re in nationwide territory. “To that we should add the 4 or 5 million Venezuelans who can not vote as a result of they may not register. Due to this fact, the minimal you should have in Venezuela is 35 or 36 p.c abstention of the whole electoral roll.”

To study extra particulars in regards to the evaluation of the potential eventualities for 28J, made by the economist Luis Vicente León throughout his participation in Perspectiva País 2024, you may entry the recording obtainable on the channel YouTube of Medianalysis.