After it was announced that inflation in July was 4%, according to INDEC data, Lucas Romero He explained that although the index is low, the services sector such as “housing, water or electricity” has accumulated an inflation of “161%” in the year. He warned that Javier Miley is failing to “persuade the Argentine public that it is solving the problems” and that the complaints of gender violence against Alberto Fernandez did not divert attention from the economic situation, as the Government had hoped. “It is difficult not to think that Milei will do as the economy does,” he added. Modo Fontevecchiaby Net TV, Radio Profile (AM 1190) y Radio Amadeus (FM 91.1).
Lucas Romero has a degree in Political Science and is the director of Synopsis Consultores.
Alexander Gomel: Yesterday, inflation data for July was released. What INDEC says is one thing and what is perceived is another?
Authoritarians don’t like this.
The practice of professional and critical journalism is a fundamental pillar of democracy. That is why it bothers those who believe they are the owners of the truth.
Yes, I think that is the risk that Milei faces. The data indicates a slowdown in inflation, and that may be an indicator that the economic program is actually achieving success in terms of disinflation. The problem is that The government has to manage people’s expectations: People have to understand that the Government is managing to solve the economic problems.
July inflation was 4%, the lowest rate in the Milei era
The slowdown in inflation is understood in a macro context of the economy, but perhaps it is not perceived so clearly by people because there are some elements of the daily economy that are still throwing worrying numbers such as, for example, consumption. The Argentine Confederation of Medium-sized Enterprises (CAME) recently reported that food and beverage consumption registered a 21% drop in the first half of the year. The CPI data shows 4%, and at the same time, a cumulative inflation of 87%.
Now, you start double-clicking on that number and you find that in items like housing, water or electricitywhich are expenses that the citizen cannot avoid. This item accumulates a Inflation of 161% in the yearalmost doubling the cumulative general inflation. One assumes that if the cost of clothing increases, one stops buying, or if the cost of eating out increases, one can stop doing so, but one cannot stop using services. This may explain the fall in consumption.
The government eliminated regulations that capped telephone, cable and internet rates
If people don’t see their income recover, They will not look favorably on the GovernmentUltimately, what people want is not being achieved: the recovery of their wages.
A.G: Does what happens in the pocket have a political counterpart?
I’ll give you a preview of our August report, which we will present to our clients this afternoon. We are seeing that the image of the Government continues to decline. For the third consecutive month we have seen a deterioration in the President’s image.
One might suppose that in this challenge of having to put the economy in order before politics becomes disordered, we seem to be in a moment of tension. The reactivation of the economy is not being as vigorous as expected and The President’s image is beginning to show signs of deterioration.
A family needed $900,648 to avoid being poor in July, according to INDEC
We will live this tension until the Government effectively convinces the people that economic solutions are on the table, that the economic order achieved is sustainable and sustainable over time, and that people feel not only that inflation has decreasedbut their wages have been recovered, their purchasing power has been restored and, ultimately, their quality of life has improved.
Elizabeth Pointer: Is the deterioration of the image justified by the fact that people are not seeing signs of recovery in their pockets?
I have two interpretations that have to do with things that have happened in political reality, which is a little more complex than just looking at economic numbers. One has to do with the fact that People perceive that the economic situation is not one that invites optimismespecially when I look at citizens’ concerns.
In the August study I mentioned, we have the Unemployment leading concerns and almost reaching 40% of the mentions. This level of concern about unemployment is one that we did not even see during the pandemic, and we have no record in the last 8 years of a similar level. So, I think there is a public perception that something in the economy is not working so that people fear losing their jobs.
I add a variable that is perhaps more political: Milei won the election last year in the second round, which is an instance that offers two alternatives. That support she received can be understood as support for her political proposal, and also as a rejection of the alternative. At some point, Milei has been wanting promote this idea that reality is interpreted as black and white. We have seen him question centrism in recent days: he needs to reproduce that scene from the second round and for reality to be seen in black and white.
Poll: Milei voters concerned about the President’s excessive use of Twitter
In this last month we had the news that some political actors, such as Mauricio Macrithey began to point out some gray areas. He assumed the presidency of the PRO with certain questions towards the Government, questioning Milei’s ability to implement his ideas, his environment and his team. If I look at data from the August study, I see data that indicate that differentiation with Macri is taking its toll on the President’s image. Partly because some segment of the voters in Patricia Bullrich begins to take some distance. Macri’s differentiation is not free for Milei and this may lead to some cost in terms of imagein addition to the economic factor.
We are looking at voting intention indicators, although more as a public opinion indicator than as an electoral one because the election is still far away, and we analyze that the Government lost voting intention as a result of Bullrich’s voters stopping announcing that their voting intention is for Freedom to Advance.
Claudio Mardones: There is talk in Macri’s entourage that Milei had lost 4 or 5 points of voting intention due to a shift in the core of PRO voters. In this context, does the judicial investigation of Alberto Fernández slow down the President’s deterioration?
The hypothesis was that this would fuel discredit towards the political leadership in general and towards Peronism in particular and, probably, serve as an explanation for the people’s demand for change in 2023. At some point, The past is the inexhaustible source of legitimacy for Milei. The discredited and questioned past served as a fuel for the demand for change in the elections.
Javier Milei does not spare criticism against Alberto Fernández, Fabiola Yañez and journalists
The impact is implicit in the records of the study, which began when this fact was emerging in the public conversation. We expected to be able to see some kind of recovery in the signs of decomposition of Milei’s image, which feeds the hypothesis that The scandal is not helping him in terms of image.
For economist Lucas Romero, the President “decided to get directly involved” in the investigation against Alberto Fernández because “the scandal is not helping him in terms of image.”
Yesterday, Milei gave a speech at the Council of the Americas and on two occasions she questioned that they see her from the outside, but Argentines don’t see it. Evidently, he is seeing that he is not succeeding in persuading the Argentine public that he is solving the problems. Perhaps that is why he decided to get involved directly, as when he asked the former president today if he intended to give Dylan to him.
Having said all this, I think that even if we hold to the hypothesis of Fabiola Gate, it is difficult not to think that Milei will do as the economy does. As always, or perhaps as never, the economic dynamic is and will be a determining factor in the political dynamic. I think that Argentines are waiting for Milei to resolve the economic problems, beyond the things that are known about an actor who is a toxic liability of Peronism. In any case, it will be a problem for Peronism, but Alberto’s scandal does not seem to be a relief for Milei.
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