There is no market in the United States, and Hong Kong stocks float freely. After opening lower, they maintain a state of digesting gains throughout the day. All major sectors are basically in the process of adjustment. It is estimated that before the Lunar New Year, investors who are brave enough to buy goods at low prices in October last year will consider eating. First charge and one charge.
The Hong Kong stock market remained at the beginning of the week yesterday, and most sectors remained in a state of rest. Only a few stocks with stories performed well. For example, Alibaba (9988), which has received a lot of news recently, was rumored to be a shareholder of GME Chairman Ryan Cohen. The stock price rose another 1%. 114.5 yuan. Some companies continued to pump money. WuXi Biologics (2269) received a 4% discount from major shareholders to sell 56 million shares, cashing out 3.98 billion yuan. The stock price fell 6% to close at 69.4 yuan, becoming the worst performing blue chip stock.
The real estate market will take 2 years to recover
The market is currently on the road to return to normal. Return to normal can be viewed in many ways. It seems that Alibaba shares can rise once morest the market. It is a return to a relatively stable operating environment following the speculation and rectification of technology and Internet companies. In the past, Alibaba’s style was controversial. Giving people the impression that the bad boy needs to be taught a lesson, the central government has made a big move, and investors have avoided the limelight. Now the situation is improving, and the stock price performance is slowly recovering, gradually returning to a more normal level. Another kind of normalization is when major shareholders or companies experienced the extremely bad weather in the capital market last year. Now that the environment improves, they seize the opportunity to strengthen their financial resources. Pharmaceutical stocks and mainland property stocks fall into this category. The former is because many companies have to spend money on research and development, while the latter is because the finances are still fragile.
UBS released a report yesterday, analyzing the mainland real estate market and the prospects of mainland real estate stocks, pointing out that the structural problem of the mainland real estate market is that housing prices in first- and second-tier cities are too high, and inventory in low-tier cities is too high. At present, the authorities insist on “housing should be lived in and not speculated”, which is the right medicine for the problem of high housing prices in mainstream cities. As for the problem of excessive inventory in low-tier cities, he also said that this round of real estate adjustment cycle was triggered by the supply side, and the industry’s new starts fell sharply, with a drop of nearly 50% from the highest point to the lowest point, while the transaction area on the demand side did not drop sharply. It means that the industry as a whole is destocking. If the newly started area in the next two years maintains the existing 800 million square meters, the inventory situation can return to the average level of the past 10 years from the end of 2024 to the beginning of 2025; in other words, it will take time for the entire restoration process , which indirectly explains why real estate developers will reach out when they have the opportunity.
The third type of return to normal is the return to normal valuation. It seems that the barrel of oil rose once morest the market on Wednesday. Sinopec (386) rose to a new one-year high of 4.05 yuan. It closed at 11.08 yuan, up more than 4%. Johnson Electric’s current price-to-earnings ratio is slightly lower than 9 times, which is lower than the average figure. Even if earnings may be pulled back due to the threat of recession, they are still lower than normal. The one-year high of Johnson Electric was 15.2 yuan, and there is still a gap of nearly 37%. The business of this type of industrial stocks is cyclical, but the stability is very high in the long run. If there were not four violent interest rate hikes last year, it would be difficult to hit such a low valuation. Now the US interest rate has a chance to peak in the first quarter. Although the outlook is not very good, but the predictability has increased, and the valuation has begun to repair, so even if there is no good news, it will automatically increase.
Before the Lunar New Year, the end of the 4 consecutive rises and the turnover decreased
Yesterday, the Hang Seng Index once fell as low as 21417 points, fell 329 points, fell below the level of 21500 points, closed at 21577 points for the whole day, fell 169 points, ended 4 consecutive gains, and the market turnover decreased to 126.7 billion yuan. The Kezhi index led the decline at first, but then narrowed its decline, closing at 4500 points, down 6 points, and the country index closed at 7314 points, down 36 points. As the turnover decreased, it would not be a bad thing if the market continues to consolidate.
According to executives doing business in the Mainland, big cities are like Beijing and Shanghai. After experiencing the peak of the epidemic, the market has recently begun to recover, and the public has stopped for a round and started to consume once more. France and Pakistan issued a report stating that following China’s anti-epidemic policy changed at the end of last year, the Chinese economy may have bottomed out in the fourth quarter of last year. It is expected that the economy will experience a substantial recovery this year. This year’s GDP growth target is 5%, and it is believed that the target may not be met. In terms of time, there may be a rebound in the first quarter of this year, and a more comprehensive recovery in the second quarter. According to this timetable, the market will adjust before the Spring Festival. You may wish to buy at a low price. The goal can be to benefit from finance and insurance. Shares of an economic recovery.
Jin Riku