Chief Executive Li Jiachao mentioned earlier that Hong Kong must grab talents, including high-quality talents that Hong Kong lacks. The Chief Executive’s statement regarding robbing talents is true, but the problem facing Hong Kong is not only robbing talents, but also robbing people. Because Hong Kong is regarding to face a serious labor shortage.
Affected by the epidemic, Hong Kong’s economy has yet to return to normal. However, the unemployment rate is not high. The unemployment rate from May to July was 4.3%. Imagine that the unemployment rate is only 4.3% when the tourism industry is close to a complete standstill and the tourism-related retail industry is severely affected, indicating that the employment situation in the industries that are not affected by the epidemic is beginning to tighten and there is a mismatch. Some people have no work to do, and there is work to be done.
At present, it is estimated that if Hong Kong further relaxes various anti-epidemic restrictions next year and the economy gradually recovers, it is believed that the labor shortage will be seriously highlighted.
In 2017, the Census and Statistics Department released the “Hong Kong Labour Population Projection (2017-2066)”. At that time, it was estimated that Hong Kong’s labour force would not reach its peak until 2021-22. Aging decreases year by year. But in reality, Hong Kong’s labor force peaked as early as May-July 2018, when it was 3.987 million. Since then, it has repeatedly declined, and the labor force from May to July this year was 3.761 million, a decrease of 226,000 or 5.7% from the peak four years ago. .
The decline in Hong Kong’s labor force is due to a number of factors:
1. The birth rate is low. The Government announced earlier that the total number of people in Hong Kong in the middle of this year was 7.292 million, a decrease of 122 million or 1.6% year-on-year. One of the reasons for the decline in the population is the natural decline, where the number of deaths is higher than the number of births. From mid-2021 to mid-2022, there were 35,100 births and 61,600 deaths, a decrease of 26,500, the most in recent years. Of course, the Covid-19 outbreak has killed thousands of elderly people, adding to the toll. However, only more than 35,000 babies are born a year, which is indeed low. Compared with the 70,000 babies born every year in the early years, the number of births is now only half of the previous number. In the future, the reduction of the labor force will become more and more serious.
Second, immigration. Another factor in the population decline is that fewer people are moving into Hong Kong than leaving. From mid-2021 to mid-2022, only 18,300 people came to Hong Kong with one-way permits, while 113,000 Hong Kongers immigrated overseas, and the net number of people leaving Hong Kong reached 9 14,700 people, for two reasons:
One is political reasons. In 2019, the black violence broke out in Hong Kong, and a large number of different politicians emigrated. Another is the outbreak of the new crown epidemic. Hong Kong’s severe restrictions have caused many foreigners who originally settled in Hong Kong to move out.
Third, the willingness of young people to be employed is low. The overall unemployment rate in Hong Kong is 4.3 percent, and the unemployment rate among the 20 to 24-year-old age group is as high as 11 percent, which is the age group of university graduates. On the one hand, the society is relatively affluent, college students can still depend on their parents for food and housing following graduation, and the pressure to find a job immediately is not high. On the other hand, young people are more selective regarding their careers. Therefore, the “Xiedong people” are very popular nowadays, that is, they do not work full-time, but only part-time, and they want to enjoy a happy and excellent life.
In the medium term, the economy will always recover, and companies will need to hire a large number of workers. In the long run, as Hong Kong still has many development plans, including major infrastructure construction, all types of construction-related work, from engineers to construction workers, will be seriously insufficient. In addition, with the ageing of society, many medical and nursing-related jobs will be severely lacking in manpower. From doctors to nurses to paramedics, there is an extreme shortage. Therefore, Hong Kong not only needs to grab talents, but also reconsider the policy of importing foreign labor.
In the past, labor unions strongly opposed imported labor, arguing that it would take away the jobs of the locals. The reality is that there are many industries in Hong Kong due to labor shortages, resulting in insufficient service supply, which has a great impact on the public, especially the lower class. From waiting for three years to see a specialist, to a residential care home for the elderly that can’t wait until death, and to the prolonged waiting time for citizens to go upstairs, part of the reason is the lack of labor.
In the past four years, Hong Kong has lost 226,000 labor force. How to fill these vacancies so that Hong Kong’s economy and people’s livelihood will not be seriously affected is a problem that the government needs to think regarding and solve urgently.
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Lu Yongxiong
