Lu Yongxiong – A Typical Prisoner’s Choice|Bus Reviews| Headline Daily

Six former Next Media executives pleaded guilty in the High Court on the 22nd to one count of colluding with foreign countries or foreign forces to endanger national security. It is said that some people will turn into tainted witnesses, which is another major breakthrough in the Li Zhiying case.

Pleas of guilt are not general, and the guilty plea must admit the key facts of the case. There are many details involved in the case if the confessor confesses. And these cases that have been admitted by some defendants will also be brought up once more in the future trial of Li Zhiying.

Many people asked why the six defendants pleaded guilty?

Generally speaking, when a defendant pleads guilty in a criminal case, it usually involves technical considerations, mainly to estimate the evidence held by the prosecution and measure the chances of the prosecution winning the case. If it is estimated that the prosecution has a high chance of winning the case, pleading guilty and showing remorse can reduce the sentence by one-third. Deduction of public holidays, regarding two years, can be released from prison following serving the sentence. Since the person involved is not allowed to be released on bail, he has already been detained for a considerable period of time, and he can be released as long as he serves the rest of his sentence.

From another perspective, if the defendant pleads not guilty and is found guilty, he usually chooses to appeal. In this type of case, no matter which side loses the case, there is a high chance that it will be appealed to the Court of Final Appeal, and the result will be a delay of several years. Even if the defendant is acquitted during the period and can go out during the appeal period, the psychological pressure will be great. The defendant weighed the two, and if it is estimated that the prosecution’s evidence is sufficient, pleading guilty is a rational choice.

Recall that on August 10, 2020, when the “Hong Kong National Security Law” had been in effect for more than a month, the police searched Next Media’s headquarters building in Tseung Kwan O and arrested Jimmy Lai, some Next Media executives, Zhou Ting, Li Yuxuan, etc. Social activists. It is said that when the police carried out the arrest operation, they only had superficial evidence and did not have sufficient evidence. Evidence is collected following the arrest, and evidence is gradually accumulated.

The key change in the case is the occurrence of the so-called “Twelve Concealment Incident”. Li Yuxuan, one of the persons involved in the case, planned to smuggle to Taiwan on a speedboat with 11 other persons involved in anti-revision cases on August 23 of the same year. During the detention in the Mainland, he explained the details of the case in detail. After Li Yuxuan was escorted back to Hong Kong, he and his legal assistant Chen Zihua pleaded guilty to the crime of colluding with foreign forces including Li Zhiying and Liu Zudi, a “scrambler” Liu Zudi. This became the first important breakthrough point in Li Zhiying’s case.

Li Zhiying’s case was charged with colluding with foreign forces to violate national security, which involved many different links. Li Yuxuan is one of the executors, and the online is Mark Simon, Li Zhiying’s assistant who has absconded and fled Hong Kong. Since the relevant contacts are conducted in secret, it is not easy for the prosecution to establish the entire chain of evidence if no relevant person discloses the information. But when a person involved in the case pleads guilty and tells the whole story of the crime, the context of the entire collusion will be fully revealed. After Li Yuxuan and Chen Zihua pleaded guilty, the prosecution had a large amount of evidence, and the chances of successfully prosecuting Li Zhiying increased. The other high-level defendants of Next Media have to consider whether to continue to choose to deny the charges and risk the final conviction.

In fact, the defendant will fall like a domino, choosing the decision to plead guilty under the constraints of the circumstances. Just like the “prisoner’s choice” in Game Theory, everyone will estimate that the other defendant will plead not guilty? Will it break the news? What are the disadvantages of others pleading guilty and not pleading guilty?

The six senior executives of Next Media finally chose to plead guilty and admit more facts of the case, which is even more unfavorable to the situation of Li Zhiying’s case. This lawsuit is not easy to fight.
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Lu Yongxiong

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