With five games left for the Canadiens, the Arizona Coyotes are the team most likely to influence the Montreal organization’s chances in the draft lottery. There are three ranks to consider for the CH: 27th, 28th and 29th.
The CH and the Coyotes have each played 77 games, but André Tourigny’s squad, camped in 27th place, holds a one-point lead over the Habs in the general classification.
If the trend continues, the Canadiens are likely to finish the regular season in 27th or 28th place.
In theory, the CH might catch up with the Philadelphia Flyers in 26th place, but this scenario remains unlikely since the Pennsylvania team claims a five-point lead with two games in hand.
And to catch the 25th-ranked Vancouver Canucks and 24th-ranked Detroit Red Wings, who each have 75 points following 75 games, the Canadiens would have to win all of their games while those two clubs would have to lose all of them. We can therefore rule out this scenario.
Could the CH finish lower in the cellar than they are now? This is a more likely scenario than the aforementioned, but don’t bet your house on it. It’s almost mathematically impossible for the Columbus Blue Jackets (31st, seven games left) and Chicago Blackhawks (32nd, six games left), who each have 54 points, to catch the Canadiens.
It’s a little more likely on the side of the Anaheim Ducks, who are 10 points behind the CH in 30th place with six games to play, but once more, do not hold your breath.
For the San Jose Sharks, it’s more “playable.” If the Sharks win their next meeting once morest the Colorado Avalanche, they will be five points behind the CH with also five games to play. It would take a small miracle, but it’s not a possibility to be ruled out.
Barring an incredible surprise, we can expect the CH to be assigned the following probabilities of winning the draft lottery: 7.5%, 8.5% or 9.5%.
