Possibility of worsening public opinion in the country due to international bullying and frustration in peace negotiations
Western experts analyzed… “The situation is different from when Crimea was annexed.”
It has been pointed out that Russia may lose its exit strategy in the war because of the annexation of occupied territories in Ukraine.
Considering the war situation, the annexation of occupied territories is a gamble that can put Russian President Vladimir Putin into a deep corner at home and abroad.
In an interview with the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on the 29th (local time), Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior researcher at the Carnegie International Peace Foundation, a US think tank, noted that this situation is different from that of the annexation of Crimea, given the conditions of the Russian military.
After occupying Crimea in 2014, Russia quickly incorporated it into its territory following a referendum.
This is similar to the process of annexation that Russia is currently carrying out in the four occupied territories of Ukraine: Donetsk Oblast, Luhansk Oblast, Kherson Oblast, and Zaporiza Oblast.
“In Crimea, there was joy in the patriotic act of occupying a culturally and historically important land without firing a single bullet,” said Kolesnikov.
He explained that the current annexation of occupied territories may appear peaceful on the outside, but inside, concerns are seeping regarding the path that Putin will take.
Externally, Russia’s international isolation may deepen and the possibility of negotiating with Ukraine to end the war may be closed.
Western countries, including the United States and the European Union (EU), have warned of additional sanctions on Russia’s annexation of occupied Ukraine as a violation of international law.
With the exception of a few countries such as Syria, North Korea and Belarus, there is no country to support the annexation, so Russia’s alienation from the international community is expected to worsen.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the annexation of the occupied territories meant that the current Russian regime might no longer communicate.
An even greater threat to Putin is the chilling public opinion in Russia regarding a conscription to protect the newly incorporated territories.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on the 24th that the annexed site would receive the same military protection as elsewhere in the Russian Federation.
Russia is engaged in a prolonged war of attrition, failing to achieve its goal of overthrowing the Ukrainian regime in the early stages of its invasion.
Western intelligence agencies estimate that the number of Russian soldiers killed in the process reached 70,000 to 80,000 (regarding 5,000 Russians claim).
As Ukraine is accelerating its retake of occupied territories, Russia has recently issued an order to mobilize its reserve forces with the goal of recruiting 300,000 to maintain its troops.
With the rush of overseas escapes and anti-war protests, the Russian public is already leaning towards antipathy towards conscription.
If the partial mobilization order is expanded in any way without Russia winning an early landslide, public opinion might deteriorate out of control.
Currently, Russia is managing the unrest by controlling the media and cracking down on demonstrations, but there is an observation that a critical point will come if the war continues.
Thomas Graham, a researcher at the American Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), a think tank, said Putin sees Ukraine as an old territory and a key part of his country, but it’s unclear whether Russians agree with that view.
“If you look at history, Russia was tenacious in defending its territory, but when it came to fighting outside, it had a slightly different attitude,” he said. “Most Russians are not interested in the historical notion that Ukraine is part of Russia. “He said.
The Wall Street Journal commented on the overall situation that Putin raised the stakes too much to narrow his exit options.
“President Putin’s real goal is to persuade the United States and Europe to feel serious and reach an end to the war,” Anatol Riven, director of the Eurasian Program at the Quincy Institute in the US, said in an interview with CNN.
“But Russia will not only escalate tensions sharply, forcing the West to respond, but will also rule out the possibility of peace for a long time.”
In the end, Russia’s push for annexation is seen as an alternative threat to the international community to recognize a new frontier or prepare for a possible nuclear war.
In such an ominous scenario, President Putin seems to be prepared for annexation and a long-term war of attrition.
Russian state TV called the Ukrainian war a ‘special military operation’ and refrained from reporting the war.
/yunhap news
