[Tokyo 11th Archyde.com]–Next week, the Tokyo stock market is expected to seek a lower price. With the outlook for Ukraine uncertain, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is on the horizon, and geopolitical risks and caution over monetary tightening are expected to weigh on the market. Although the FOMC is predominantly regarded as a safe passage, there are voices that are wary of unexpected hawkish material popping out.
The expected range of the Nikkei average is 24,500-25,500 yen.
Many people have said that the current market price is “depending on the external environment and we have to wait for the situation to improve” (domestic securities). With the US major SQ on weekends and consecutive holidays in Japan, it is likely that the mood will be reserved. Shingo Ide, chief equity strategist at the Nisseikiso Research Institute, said, “The high volatility situation will continue. The upside seems to be heavy, but if the situation does not worsen, we can carefully try the upside.”
There was no change in Russia’s hard-line stance, and the foreign ministers’ talks in Turkey made no progress toward a ceasefire. In the market, the predominant view is that “the gap between views is not likely to be easily closed” (domestic securities), and if the fighting intensifies, it is wary of prolonged tensions and adverse effects on the economy.
Prices remain high due to speculation that supply of crude oil, natural gas, non-ferrous metals, grains, etc. will be restricted by economic sanctions once morest Russia in Europe and the United States, and there is a sense of caution regarding stagflation, where inflation and recession are progressing at the same time. Is smoldering. Monetary authorities are under pressure to steer hard, and the FOMC on the 15th and 16th is likely to regain interest in reading the whereregardings of US monetary policy.
The first 0.25% rate hike at the FOMC in March has been factored into the market, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has squeezed consideration of the situation in Ukraine in a parliamentary testimony. No major upheavals are expected at the FOMC this time.
However, the European Central Bank (ECB) board of directors on the 10th, which was speculated to be dovish in consideration of the situation in Ukraine, announced that it would accelerate the reduction of the quantitative easing policy. It seems that the stance is to be more cautious regarding rising prices than the situation in Ukraine. ”(Another domestic securities) Some people feel the change in the wind direction. “The Fed is trying to balance the situation in Ukraine with inflation control,” said Mr. Ide of the Nisseikiso Research Institute. “If the balance is not lost, the market price will harden.”
In addition, important indicators such as mining and industrial production and retail sales from January to February will be announced in China on the 15th. Domestically, the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy-making meeting is scheduled for 17-18, but the market is not expected to make any recent policy changes. The 16th is the intensive response day for the spring battle.
