2023-07-05 18:11:37
Ruble, Jul 05, 21:11
Loko-Invest estimated the range of dollar fluctuations at ₽85-95 until the end of the year
Loko-Invest Investment Director Dmitry Polevoy did not rule out that the Russian currency might briefly return to around ₽80 per dollar during periods of low demand.
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Photo: Vladislav Shatilo / RBC
The investment director of Loko-Invest, Dmitry Polevoy, worsened the forecast for the exchange rate of the Russian ruble once morest the US dollar until the end of 2023. The new forecast range of currency rate fluctuations is ₽85-95, reported Telegram channel “Loko-Invest”.
“Apparently, the initial range that we had ₽75-80 now will need to be revised towards ₽85-95 if we are talking regarding the period until the end of this year and the beginning of the next,” the expert noted. At the same time, Polevoy did not rule out that the Russian currency may return to levels of regarding ₽80 per dollar for a short time during periods when demand for the currency will weaken.
The dollar exchange rate exceeded ₽91 for the first time since March 2022
Expert also notedthat, in terms of trade balance, the situation is less favorable than last year. However, according to Polevoy, a ₽50-60 billion current account surplus is “not that bad” for the national currency. There is much more uncertainty regarding what is happening with financial flows, the expert believes. In his opinion, it is this factor that has been generating volatility in the foreign exchange market since April this year.
According to Polevoy, the focus will be on Russian exporters, who are now “less actively present on the market in relation to the amount of revenue that they have,” as well as the population withdrawing their funds to foreign accounts.
The Russian currency has continued to weaken since May, following a short-term strengthening to ₽76–77 once morest the dollar and ₽83–84 once morest the euro. Since May 11, the ruble has collapsed once morest the dollar by 19.7%, and at the end of the day on Wednesday, July 5, the US currency was worth ₽91, reaching this mark for the first time in more than 15 months – since March 28, 2022.
Thus, the dollar exchange rate exceeded the range of ₽80–90, which marked last month, First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov on the sidelines of SPIEF. According to him, such a range is comfortable for the economy in terms of the budget, as well as for the interests of exporters and importers.
In June, the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange rose steadily once morest the backdrop of the weakening of Russia’s balance of payments, the exit of foreign businesses from Russian assets and the growing demand of the population for foreign currency during the holiday season. Pressure on the Russian currency was also exerted events around the PMC “Wagner”, and towards the end of the month – the end of tax payments.
Earlier last week, chief economists for Russia and the CIS at Renaissance Capital Sofya Donets and Andrey Melashchenko increased the dollar target from ₽75 to ₽80 by the end of 2023 and from ₽78.5 to ₽83 by the end of 2024.
Author: Dmitry Ilyin.
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