2023-09-28 01:00:00
Logistics demand stabilizes and rebounds, market vitality is released
——Logistics operation analysis from January to August 2023
China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing
China Logistics Information Center
In August, macroeconomic control policies and measures were intensively introduced, and the recovery of the national economy accelerated. The main indicators of logistics have recovered and stabilized simultaneously, the growth rate of total social logistics has picked up, demand in industry, import, people’s consumption and other fields has steadily expanded, and logistics operations have maintained a stable recovery.
1. Policy effectiveness gradually emerged, and logistics demand recovered moderately
From January to August, the total social logistics volume nationwide was 216.4 trillion yuan. Calculated at comparable prices, it increased by 4.8% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage point higher than that from January to July; in August, it increased by 5.2%, which was 0.7 percentage point higher than July. Entering August, extreme weather disturbances have weakened, upstream production has rebounded, logistics demand has stabilized and picked up, and major indicators have shown a recovery trend. However, it should also be noted that the pressure for transformation and adjustment in some areas still exists, the recovery level of total social logistics is still weak, and the cumulative growth rate has not yet returned to normal levels.
From a structural point of view, production and consumption in most fields have improved to varying degrees this month. Innovation-driven and industrial upgrading have played a leading role in the recovery of logistics demand, mainly showing the following characteristics:
Industrial production is accelerating, and logistics demand in key areas is growing well. From January to August, the total amount of industrial product logistics increased by 3.9% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage points higher than that from January to July; in August, it increased by 4.5% year-on-year, 0.8 percentage points higher than July. Most of these areas achieved growth, with continued strong support from manufacturing logistics. At the same time, the trend of industrial upgrading continues, and the driving effect of innovation momentum is obvious. The total amount of manufacturing logistics increased by 5.4% in August, an acceleration of 1.5 percentage points. Driven by innovative driving forces such as the digital economy and green economy, logistics demand in key areas has grown rapidly. In August, the total logistics volume of special equipment manufacturing and electronic device manufacturing for the electronics industry increased by 15.7% and 13% respectively. In terms of physical volume, the logistics volume of high-tech products such as integrated circuits and optoelectronic devices exceeded 20%.
Consumption is strong during the summer, and people’s flow of people’s livelihood is increasing rapidly. From January to August, the total amount of logistics for units and residents increased by 9.0% year-on-year, maintaining rapid growth throughout the year. Driven by summer travel, logistics demand in areas such as catering consumption has grown rapidly. In August, catering-related logistics demand grew by more than 10%. Retail trade logistics continues to maintain rapid growth driven by new sales models such as live streaming. In August, China’s total e-commerce logistics business volume index was 121.4 points, reflecting that e-commerce logistics business volume maintained a rapid growth of more than 20%, and its contribution to the growth of total social logistics continued to increase.
Domestic demand has improved, and the volume price of imported logistics has rebounded. From January to August, the total import logistics volume increased by 14.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate continued to pick up; in August, the price of imported goods rebounded marginally, and the logistics flow continued to improve. The total import logistics volume in August increased by 18.4% year-on-year, 4.6 percentage points higher than in July. From the perspective of product structure, the recovery in domestic demand has accelerated the growth of imports of bulk commodities such as raw materials. The cumulative year-on-year growth rates of import logistics of iron ore and its concentrates, crude oil, coal and lignite were 7.4%, 14.7% and 82.0% respectively; Affected by factors such as the substitution of domestic products in some fields, the import volume of mechanical and electrical products has slowed down, and the import logistics volume of semiconductor devices, integrated circuits, and automobiles has declined significantly.
The development momentum of green logistics is good. Since the beginning of this year, driven by multiple positive factors such as favorable policies, cost reduction, efficiency improvement, and energy conservation and carbon reduction, green logistics has been developing well. All regions have accelerated the construction of new energy vehicle infrastructure and strived to ensure the energy supply needs of urban distribution vehicles. The average monthly sales volume of the new energy heavy truck market from January to August was 2,096 units, slightly higher than last year’s average. In August, the domestic new energy heavy truck market sales were 2,907 units, a month-on-month increase of 23% and a year-on-year increase of nearly 60%.
2. Logistics maintains supply resilience and industrial chain turnover continues to be efficient
From January to August, the total revenue of the logistics industry was 8.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, and the growth rate was 0.1 percentage point higher than that from January to July. The total logistics business volume index in August was 50.3%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. The impact of extreme weather in some areas at the beginning of this month still exists, and logistics operations are weak due to cyclical and phased impacts. However, the industry’s adjustment response level has been significantly accelerated, the logistics network is generally smooth, operating efficiency is stable, and the overall growth rate of the logistics market is stable and rising.
Warehousing and logistics continue to be efficient, helping to improve the connection between production and sales. In August, the average inventory turnover index in the China Warehousing Index was 54.3%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Warehousing turnover services remained efficient, helping the industrial chain to connect smoothly, and upstream finished product inventories dropped to a low level. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the product sales rate of industrial enterprises above designated size returned to a high level for the year of more than 97% in August, and the growth rate of finished product inventories at the end of July has dropped to a historically low level for six consecutive months.
The market vitality in key areas has been released, and the contribution of private enterprises has increased. Since the beginning of this year, e-commerce express delivery has continued to be prosperous. The total business volume index of the postal express industry in the China Logistics Prosperity Index has been in the high prosperity range of more than 60% for six consecutive months. From January to August, express delivery business revenue grew by more than 10%, driving the total revenue of the logistics industry to grow by 1 percentage point. With increased support for the private economy, the development of the private express logistics main market has continued to show results. The number of express logistics companies among the top 500 private enterprises in China released this month has risen to 7, accounting for 80% of the total express business revenue. The contribution rate of the logistics market continues to increase.
Taken together, logistics generally maintained a recovery trend from January to August. Entering August, a series of policy measures to expand domestic demand, stabilize expectations, and prevent risks have initially taken effect. The foundation for the recovery of logistics demand has been solidified, and market expectations are basically stable. However, we must also note that fluctuations in upstream demand are still frequent, the foundation for recovery still needs to be consolidated, competition pressure in most logistics fields is increasing, and industry transformation and adjustment are still under pressure. First, the industry as a whole is still in a state of oversupply. The new orders index in China’s logistics industry prosperity index dropped below 50% in August, which has been lower than the business volume index in the same period for many consecutive months. It shows that the current upstream demand is generally weak, the market as a whole is in a state of oversupply, homogeneous competition in the industry is fierce in some fields, and the supply structure needs to be further adjusted and optimized. Second, the profits of most logistics companies are still under pressure. Recently, the prices of upstream raw materials have slowed down, and the operating cost pressure of logistics companies has eased slightly. The cost per 100 yuan of logistics business income of key companies has fallen slightly, decreasing by 0.2 yuan month-on-month. However, at the same time, logistics companies also face greater challenges in raising prices. Most small and medium-sized enterprises do not have a high status in price negotiations. Logistics business income has slowed down, resulting in narrow profit margins and low profit margins. Third, service prices continue to run at low levels, and support for price recovery is weak. Road, water and other transportation prices are lower than the same period. In August, China’s coastal (bulk cargo) comprehensive freight rate index had a monthly average of 937.54 points, a year-on-year decrease of 18.9%; China’s road logistics freight index had a monthly average of 102.5 points, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%.
Judging from the later trend, as macroeconomic policies and measures further take effect, logistics companies’ confidence in market development will be further consolidated. Coupled with the acceleration of production and procurement activities of upstream companies, logistics demand is expected to rebound steadily. Data in the first two weeks of September show that the traffic volume of various transportation modes has shown signs of improvement month-on-month, and transportation and freight transportation may enter the peak season. Logistics operations are expected to gradually improve in the fourth quarter, and logistics business activities will become more active, helping to smooth the supply chain cycle and improve economic volume and quality.
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