Higher than in 2019, local authorities’ self-financing capacity increased for all local authorities last year. If the groups with their own taxation experienced “a very strong dynamic”, that of the municipalities was “more measured”, according to an inventory published by the DGFiP. The year 2023 might, however, condemn mayors to reduce their investments.
A financial situation of communities for 2022 better than announced. This is what the General Directorate of Public Finance (DGFiP) suggests, in an accounting balance sheet of local finances which it has just published. An inventory as of January 31, 2023 which, however, only takes into account the main budgets.
Driven by the increase in tax revenue (+5%, i.e. 7.3 billion euros more), the operating revenue of all local authorities thus increased by 4.8% in 2022, while their expenses increased by 4.5%.
In detail, personnel costs increased by 5% and purchases and external expenses by 8.7% under the effect of historical inflation, the thaw of the index point and a rise in interest rates. interest. On the other hand, underlines the DGFiP, “ a decrease was noted in personal aid paid by the departments and single territorial communities (CTU) overseas (-1.8%) ».
Gross savings: a measured increase for municipalities
As a result, the overall gross savings of local authorities (difference between revenue and operating expenses), which reached 38.7 billion euros at the end of January 2023, increased by 5.9% over one year and summer ” higher than 2019 “, explain the authors of the note. Moreover, they note that all strata of communities are concerned.
More si « a very strong dynamic ” has been visible for groups with their own taxation (+ 11.8%) and regions (+ 8.8%) for a year, the increase in the self-financing capacity of municipalities has, on the other hand, been ” more measured », up to 2.5%.
After deducting debt repayments, the savings of all local authorities even increased by 8.8% over one year (i.e. 24.5 billion euros), and once more remains above its 2021 levels. (22.5 billion euros at the end of January 2022) and 2019 (20.5 billion euros at the end of January 2020), according to the DGFiP. All strata are also concerned, with the exception this time of the regions, whose net savings are slightly down.
With regard to investment expenditure, it also increased for all strata of communities in 2022. In particular for the municipal block (+ 8%, once morest + 0.8% for the regions and + 3.9% for the departments ).
At the AMF, however, we remind you this morning that the increase in investments over the past year is ” due to the end of postponements of investments not made in 2020 due to the health crisis, but also to the price effect which leads to an increase in value of the amounts “. At the same time, ” public markets are revised downwards due to inflation and the increase in investments (+ 8%) in 2022, added to that of 2021 (+ 4.3%), does not make up for the drop in 2020 (- 13, 5%) ».
For its part, the cash flow of local authorities reached 57.2 billion euros, up once more, compared to the end of January 2022 (56.6 billion euros), with a sharp increase for municipalities (+ 8.1%), with nearly 31 billion euros in Treasury deposits, and groups with their own taxation (+12%), with nearly 12 billion euros. On the other hand, the regions experienced a sharp drop (-53.7%).
Still uncertainties for 2023
Better-than-expected results therefore – particularly with regard to the estimates of La Banque Postale, in its economic report of last September – which suggest that the budgets for 2023 will be set up a little easier than initially expected. Last fall, faced with the lack of visibility, a quarter of the municipalities that usually vote on their budget in December had almost all decided to postpone their budget orientation report and their vote on the budget to March.
In an inflationary context, however, the AMF specifies that ” this analysis by the DGFiP essentially corresponds to the additional day for the year 2022, the figures being mainly related to the year 2022 ».
The association thus fears that the acceleration of the operating expenses of the municipal block will not continue in 2023 and will generate a return of ” the scissor effect on local budgets.
« In January 2023, inflation increased further by 6%, following 5.9% in December, due in particular to the rise in food prices (+13.2%) and those of energy (+16 .3%) “, she recalls. Moreover, “ the Banque de France plans an interest rate hike until the end of September 2023 “, without counting “ a systemic risk on loans backed by the Livret A whose rate tripled between February 2022 and February 2023 to reach 3%.
Despite dynamic revenue (revaluation of rental values by 7%, compensation for the CVAE up by 20% or even increases in the DGF and VAT) and the implementation of measures aimed at relieving local budgets (electricity shock absorber, safety nets and tariff shield), these revenue increases risk “yet not to” not cover the increase in expenses “, according to the association. If it considers that the level of savings “ might be maintained this year, she explains that, “ faced with the difficulties, the objective of the communities of the municipal block for 2023 would be to maintain the service offer to the population ».
Investment: the “adjustment variable”?
But to achieve this, local elected officials are preparing to have to trim their investment programs. Indeed, in a survey of some 4,800 local authorities, the latter finds that nearly three-quarters of municipalities (71%) plan to reduce their investments when more than half of them (56%) plan to increase their utility rates.
The year 2023 thus risks “ to register a lower mobilization of savings to finance investment, which might at the same time not make it possible to mobilize state grants “. Eligibility for the safety net is notably conditional on a loss of gross savings of at least 15%… The consultation has also been relaunched so that it is ” improved » .
Under these conditions, the AMF wonders whether investments will not become the “ adjustment variable in 2023 ” due in particular to the continuation of inflation and in particular the rise in interest rates and the Livret A which will “ to weigh “on the investment programs” until the end of the mandate » : « The annual loan finances approximately one third of investment expenditure. And even if inflation stabilizes, prices will not return to their pre-crisis level, which leads to a downward revision of all investment programs “, deplores the association.
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