Zhang Linzheng (Professor Emeritus, Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University)
In the past six months, Lithuania has become a hot topic on both sides of the Taiwan Strait and the European Union, creating varying degrees of trouble for the three parties. This move by the United States may seem like a brilliant move, but in fact it is only causing dust.
Lithuanian break
Since Tsai Ing-wen came to power, the mainland has diplomatically connected seven cities with Taiwan’s diplomatic ties. Even though the United States passed the “Taipei Act” in 2020 in order to maintain the number of Taiwan’s diplomatic ties, it was ineffective. Before the general election in Honduras last year, the opposition candidate Xiumala. Castro claimed that he would resign from power following being elected, and the United States tried its best to finally make Castro change its attitude following being elected. Unexpectedly, the United States and Taiwan have not recovered, but President Ortiga of Nicaragua unexpectedly chose the day of the Freedom Summit in the United States to announce the establishment of diplomatic relations with China and cut off diplomatic relations with Taiwan. The Tsai government lost its eighth diplomatic country.
The United States’ efforts to maintain Taiwan’s diplomatic ties in the formal diplomatic arena failed, and it turned its focal point on Lithuania in the Baltic Sea. It seems like a good plan for the United States, China, and Taiwan, but it may be difficult to implement.
The reason why Lithuania has become a diplomatic breach in mainland China is because the three small Baltic states were successively the territories of Imperial Russia and Soviet Russia, and the Soviet Union declared independence on the eve of the disintegration. Historical factors have made the three countries deeply hostile to Russia, and they feel that Russia has always been a big threat to their security, and they need to find a strong backer for themselves. Pro-US has become the best policy option, and Lithuania joined the EU and US-led NATO in 2004.
Of course, the United States chose Lithuania to confront the mainland, and it was also recognized by Lithuania. Lithuania and China do not have close economic and trade relations. Even if Taiwan is allowed to set up a representative office in Lithuania in the name of “Taiwan”, and the mainland retaliates, the latter’s impact will be limited and can be passed on to Taiwan. If the U.S. plan is successful, it may play a domino effect in Central and Eastern Europe, which will be a diplomatic nightmare for China.
In fact, there are traces of the deterioration of neutral relations. On the one hand, under the influence of the United States, on the other hand, the relationship between China and Russia has become increasingly close. Under the logic that the friend of the enemy is the enemy, Lithuania issued a report in February 2019, which for the first time regarded China as a security threat. The Belt and Road project is disturbed. In August of the same year, the unrest in Hong Kong increased, and pro-China activists countered the solidarity activities held by the Lithuanian masses in the capital, which aroused the displeasure of the Lithuanian authorities. The new government elected in October 2020 is more aggressive, emphasizing value orientation, chanting human rights and freedom and democracy, and following the steps of the United States. This development predicts a further deterioration of Sino-British relations.
In late May 2021, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis fired the first shot, claiming to withdraw from the China-led Central and Eastern Europe 17+1 Forum, accusing the latter of splitting the unity of the 27 EU countries and excluding Chinese suppliers from the forum. In addition to the construction of China’s 5G network. On July 20, Wu Zhaoxie announced that he would set up the “Taiwan Representative Office in Lithuania” in Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania, with the English name “TaiwaneseRepresentativeOfficeinLituania”. The Lithuanian government replaced Taiwan with Taiwanese, showing that it still has concerns.
The matter immediately aroused serious concern in Beijing, and they kept negotiating with the Lithuanian authorities, demanding that the latter abide by the “one China principle” commitments when the diplomatic relations were established. On August 10, Beijing recalled its ambassador to Lithuania and asked Lithuania to recall its ambassador to China at the same time. On November 18, the “Taiwan Representative Office in Lithuania” was officially listed. The mainland downgraded its relations with Lithuania to the charge d’affaires level and renamed the Chinese embassy in Lithuania as “the representative office of the People’s Republic of China in the Republic of Lithuania”.
Wang Yi said that by allowing Taiwan to set up a Taiwan representative office in Lithuania, Lithuania is “creating ‘one China, one Taiwan'” in the international arena, blatantly launching political provocations once morest China, and setting a bad precedent. Lithuania’s move seriously violated its commitment when it established diplomatic relations. It is a serious violation of the one-China principle.” The mainland is handling this matter solemnly, aiming to set an example, because Wu Zhaoxie often traveled in pro-Taiwan Eastern European countries such as the Czech Republic and Slovakia, and politicians in these countries were eager to move.
Lithuanian Miscalculation Office
Lithuania must have made plans to set up an office in Lithuania in the name of Taiwan, but it is just not skilled enough to understand the weight of the Taiwan issue in mainland China’s heart, as well as the strength and sanctions of mainland China. The trade volume between Lithuania and the mainland is really small. The total amount in 2019 was only 1.35 billion US dollars, of which exports were 310 million US dollars, accounting for 0.9% of total exports, and imports were 730 million US dollars, accounting for 2.9% of total imports. On this basis, Lithuania believes that even if The mainland’s retaliatory sanctions are not a big problem.
Unexpectedly, China’s retaliatory sanctions are far more than that. First of all, it is said that the mainland removed Lithuania from the customs system. This move is equivalent to rejecting the import of Lithuanian goods, so that the goods drifted at sea. Therefore, Taiwan had to pick up 24,000 bottles of rum that Taiwanese rarely drink. Lithuania’s cooperative manufacturers in the mainland cancelled many orders, such as beer, chocolate, etc., which were also undertaken by Taiwan. The bigger problem is that Beijing has put pressure on European companies to say that any products exported to the mainland with accessories or elements produced in Lithuania will refuse to import them in the future. In this way, European companies that purchase Lithuanian industrial accessories or set up factories in Lithuania to produce accessories will be hit hard, either purchasing elsewhere or withdrawing from Lithuania. This in turn will cost Lithuania a lot.
For example, the German car dealer Continental AG built a factory in central Lithuania in October 2019 to produce various auto parts. Last year, it started building a second factory. It is expected to invest 185 million euros in Lithuania in the future. Employ 1500 people. The mainland is the main market for German automobiles. If the conflict between China and Lithuania cannot be eased, Lithuania and related European companies will be severely affected, which is unexpected for Liguo.
The turmoil expanded, and Lithuania’s internal affairs also caused waves. President Gitanas Nauseda said he has no objection to Taiwan’s establishment of an office in Lithuania, but the name of the office has not been informed by the cabinet, and believes that it is inappropriate to use the name “Taiwan”. Former President Valdas Adamkus believed that the matter of recognizing Taiwan should be a matter of big powers, not a small country taking the lead. Deputy Foreign Minister Mantas Adomenas even more frankly admitted that they did not expect the establishment of a “representative office” in the name of “Taiwan” would cause such a huge economic loss. Lithuania’s opposition shadow cabinet believes that the government should correct its mistakes, recognize Taiwan as part of China’s territory, and change the Taiwan representative office to Taipei representative office.
Now the Lithuanian government is divided, and the president and the cabinet are at odds on China policy. Nauseda’s approval rating is 52.5%, the cabinet led by Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte is only 17.3%, and the foreign minister’s support is even lower to only 15.3%. Only 13% of Lithuanians support the government’s current China policy, while 58% oppose it. In mid-December last year, Simmonite survived the turmoil of the collapse of the cabinet, but among the 141 members of Congress, the coalition cabinet he led is a fragile majority, with only 74 seats. If the economic recession caused by the bad relations between China and China cannot be stopped Point, the situation continues, the stability of the cabinet is very problematic.
EU tested
The European Union originated from the idea of having a close relationship with the United States and Russia following World War II, and it was not blessed by the United States from the beginning. The United States is happy to see the disorderly expansion of the European Union and the inclusion of a large number of Central and Eastern European countries, creating more internal noise and making it difficult to integrate. The U.S. is also happy to see the U.K. leave the European Union and turn the U.K. once morest itself. The United States is very afraid of the EU’s independent voice, afraid that the EU and China are too close, and it will not tolerate the EU’s compromise with Russia. The United States chose Lithuania to confront the mainland this time, one of the purposes is also to test and divide the EU.
After Lithuania was sanctioned by the mainland, the United States immediately reached an export credit cooperation agreement with Lithuania worth up to 600 million US dollars to enhance trade between the two countries. EU companies are affected by sanctions, so they cannot turn a blind eye to the situation and will definitely respond.
The EU trades closely with China and is China’s second largest trading partner. The China-EU investment agreement reached at the end of 2020 should have been reviewed by the European Parliament last year. The EU and China imposed sanctions on each other and were shelved because the US provoked the unwarranted genocide in Xinjiang. The EU’s policies towards China are not consistent. Western European countries focus on economic and trade interests and will not follow the US’s anti-China policy. Most of the Central and Eastern European countries are republics or vassal states of the former Soviet Union. Countries such as Lithuania, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia have been instigated by the United States in recent years and have swayed their stance on the mainland. The EU’s foreign policy must be decided by consensus, and it is difficult to form a consensus due to the different positions of Eastern and Western Europe.
Regarding Lithuania’s situation and requirements, the EU cannot ignore it. As a result, in December last year, the European Commission proposed “anti-coercion instruments” to combat non-EU countries putting pressure on member states. French, German, Austrian and other foreign ministers have all spoken on this, but it will take time for “anti-coercion measures” to be implemented into law.
On January 14, the 27 EU foreign ministers held an informal meeting in Brest, France, to discuss how to deal with China’s trade sanctions once morest Lithuania. Although the EU has clearly expressed its solidarity with Lithuania, it is mostly lip service and has not proposed substantive measures. The EU had advised Lithuania to lodge a complaint with the World Trade Organization, which is not a good idea because the organization is boycotted by the United States and cannot function. The EU’s proposal shows that it cannot and does not want to take over Lithuania. In fact, there are many people in the EU who believe that Lithuania should not go into the muddy waters of “One China” at all, causing itself and the EU a bad smell.
Troubles in Taiwan
After the mainland imposed sanctions on Lithuania, Taiwan began to make up for it. In addition to the above-mentioned purchases of rum, beer and other commodities, Taiwan announced on January 5 that it would set up a US$200 million Central and Eastern Europe investment fund to invest in semiconductor, biotechnology, laser and other technology fields. It may be that the other party thinks the amount is too small. On the 10th of the same month, the National Development and Development Council said that it would set up a financing fund of 1 billion US dollars to promote bilateral cooperation between Taiwan and Lithuania. Although the Tsai government spends a lot of Taiwanese tax money, it is afraid that it will be difficult to save the near fire. Not to mention cashing these checks, it will take time to work. Does Lithuania have such an investment environment? Can this amount of money support the money-burning industries such as semiconductors and biotechnology?
Is the price Taiwan paid for this not worth it? Taiwan’s local representative office in Lithuania is only an unofficial representative office. Lithuania agreed to the name of the office set up by the Tsai government as “TaiwaneseRepresentativeOfficeinLituania”. The word “Taiwan” in China is very different, but this has already led to strong sanctions from the mainland.
Is it worth it for the Tsai government to spend a lot of money to set up a representative office in the name of Taiwan in a non-diplomatic country? As a result, Lithuania has caused political instability and economic turmoil. Once the government of the Republic of China changes, won’t this representative office have to return to its original shape? Besides, this kind of money-spending will inevitably feel injustice to Taiwan’s existing diplomatic relations, and the demand for Taiwan in the future can be imagined.
Taiwan’s tossing with the support of the United States is not good for both sides of the strait, and most of it is cheaper for outsiders. During the Ma Ying-jeou era, the diplomatic truce between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait made everyone feel at ease. The number of diplomatic ties will not decrease, and they even became observers of international organizations. Tsai Ing-wen followed the United States, but as a result, the so-called international space for Taiwan independence became smaller and smaller. Now there are only 14 weak and small diplomatic relations. Taiwan’s Yangguan Avenue to the world needs to pass through Beijing first, rather than relying on Washington. But for the Cai government, which has become mentally handicapped due to the solidification of its ideology, these principles are just playing the piano to the bull!
Epilogue
The events in Lithuania are not over yet, but the outlook is ominous. The whole play was directed by the US behind the scenes. Taiwan and Lithuania were the protagonists on the stage, but they were actually US pawns to attack the mainland and the EU. Why is there this drama?
As early as December 2020, 78 members of the U.S. House of Representatives sent a letter to Pompeo, requesting that the “Taiwan Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States” be renamed the “Taiwan Representative Office”. May 2021 cross-party MPs revisited. But the United States does not know how strong the mainland’s response will be. After all, the relationship between China and the United States is already bad, and it should not make it worse. The final decision was to let Lithuania test the water temperature first. As for the September 10 report by the Financial Times that Washington is “seriously considering” the renaming of the Taiwanese agency in the United States as the “Taiwan Representative Office”, it may not be correct, because the matter in Lithuania had already exploded.
To rectify Taiwan’s name, Lithuania has become a scapegoat, and Taiwan has taken advantage of it. Lithuania and Taiwan can’t step down now, they can only hold on.
Recently, it was reported that Slovenian Prime Minister Jansa, in an interview with the Indian media, revealed that he would set up mutual relations with Taiwan and expressed solidarity with Lithuania. The incident was apparently the spillover effect of the Lithuanian incident, which caused shock and strong opposition from the Beijing authorities. Beijing’s response shows that it has not fully grasped the situation in Central and Eastern Europe, and it should quickly make up for it. Yang Sa has friendly relations with Taiwan. He has visited Taiwan several times since 1997. Taipei’s large-scale distribution of money to Lithuania may have induced his interest in setting up offices in Taiwan. Interestingly, though, Jansa said the location “wouldn’t be at the level of an embassy, it would be at the level of exchange that many countries in the European Union (EU) are already doing.” Does that mean it won’t follow Lithuania’s lead on sensitive names? How to do it? If so, the storm can be controlled.
Although both the mainland and the European Union are in trouble due to the above-mentioned operations of the United States, the ships are not afraid of waves and are easy to stop losses. The mainland has imposed economic and trade sanctions as an example, and it has already exerted influence. As for the EU, on the surface, it has to show solidarity with Lithuania. In fact, Lithuania doesn’t take the EU kidnapping. Major EU countries, especially Germany and France, have their own autonomy and have their own views on China. No matter how much the United States picks up troubles, it is expected that the foundation of China-EU relations will not be shaken.
