What pathogens are likely to trigger the next global pandemic?

In a recent publication, the World Health Organization (WHO) has broadened its list of pathogens that could potentially trigger the next global pandemic. These are referred to as priority pathogens. Consequently, various viruses and bacteria have made their way onto this rather unsettling list.

Identifying the Most Concerning Threats

Approximately five years ago, the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) initiated a pandemic in Wuhan, China. According to reports, the virus has claimed at least seven million lives worldwide. For over a year now, life has returned to normal, but one question remains: when will the next global pandemic occur, and which pathogen will be responsible?

In early July 2024, prominent Hong Kong microbiologist and physician Yuen Kwok-yung released his autobiography. This expert, recognized for his work that led to the isolation of the SARS virus in 2003, stated on this occasion that a next pandemic is inevitable, although the exact timing remains uncertain. Nonetheless, if comprehensive measures are not implemented now, this pandemic is anticipated to be significantly more severe than Covid-19.

A month earlier, the WHO published an updated list of so-called priority pathogens, which are capable of triggering a new global health crisis. Several new viruses were added to this list. No fewer than 200 scientists contributed to the compilation of this updated list, analyzing data on 1,652 pathogen species to identify the most concerning threats.

Credits: World Health Organization (WHO)

Who Are the New Additions to This List?

Regarding methodology, scientists now employ a more comprehensive and systematic approach. Thus, while the list still features isolated viruses, it also encompasses entire families of viruses and bacteria that could potentially result in pandemics. Additionally, the objective included a focus on identifying critical knowledge gaps that need to be addressed.

The new WHO list includes coronaviruses from the Sarbecovirus group, including the well-known SARS-CoV-2. These are now categorized as subgroups rather than isolated viral entities. Other less publicized but significant agents have been included, such as the dengue virus and the influenza A virus (notably the H5 subtype). We should also note the monkeypox virus, which instigated a new pandemic in 2022, despite the disease’s initial eradication in 1980. Furthermore, the Nipah virus has garnered attention, particularly in India in 2021 and the first half of 2024.

Finally, among the various organisms listed, we find no fewer than five bacteria responsible for diseases and disorders like cholera, dysentery, pneumonia, plague, and even diarrhea.

In a recent publication, the World Health Organization (WHO) has expanded its list of pathogens that could potentially cause the next global pandemic. These are called priority pathogens. Various viruses and bacteria have therefore made their way onto this rather unsettling list.

Identify the Most Worrying Threats

About five years ago, the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) triggered a pandemic in Wuhan, China. According to figures, the virus has killed no less than seven million people worldwide. For over a year now, life has been back to normal, but one question remains: when will the next global pandemic occur and what pathogen will be responsible?

In early July 2024, renowned Hong Kong microbiologist and physician Yuen Kwok-yung published his autobiography. However, this expert, who is credited with the work that led to the isolation of the SARS virus in 2003, spoke on this occasion of a next pandemic being inevitable although it is impossible to know when it will occur. Nevertheless, if strict measures are not put in place now, this pandemic is expected to be much more serious than Covid-19.

A month earlier, the WHO published an updated list of so-called priority pathogens, i.e., those capable of triggering a new global health crisis. Several new viruses were then listed. No fewer than 200 scientists worked on this new list by analyzing the data on 1,652 pathogen species in an effort to identify the most pressing threats.

WHO report virus list

Who are the Newcomers on This List?

Regarding the methodology, scientists have adopted a more holistic and systematic approach. Thus, while the list still contains isolated viruses, it now includes entire families of viruses and bacteria that could potentially cause pandemics. In addition, the objective included a desire to identify critical knowledge gaps that need to be filled.

The new WHO list includes coronaviruses from the Sarbecovirus group, which encompasses the infamous SARS-CoV-2. These are now classified as subgroups rather than isolated viral entities. Other less publicized agents that are highly concerning have also made their way onto the list, including the dengue virus and the influenza A virus (particularly the H5 subtype). Notably, the monkeypox virus, which caused a new outbreak in 2022 despite being eradicated in 1980, is also included. Additionally, the Nipah virus, which garnered attention in India in 2021 and the first half of 2024, is now considered a critical threat.

Understanding the Priority Pathogens

The newly identified priority pathogens have varying degrees of potential impact on global health ranging from respiratory to vector-borne diseases. Here is a summary of some notable pathogens included in the WHO list:

Pathogen Type Notes
SARS-CoV-2 Virus Responsible for the Covid-19 pandemic.
Dengue Virus Virus Causes Dengue fever, severe cases can lead to hospitalization.
Influenza A (H5) Virus Subtype with potential for human-to-human transmission.
Monkeypox Virus Virus Recent outbreaks have raised global health concerns.
Nipah Virus Virus High mortality rate, concerns in specific geographic regions.
Cholera Bacteria Causes severe diarrhea, transmitted through contaminated water.
Dysentery Bacteria Infectious disease marked by diarrhea; can lead to dehydration.
Pneumonia Bacteria Respiratory illness causing severe symptoms; potential for outbreaks.
Plague Bacteria Historical pandemics; concerns persist in endemic areas.
Diarrhea (Acute) Bacteria Leading cause of morbidity in children worldwide.

Critical Gaps in Knowledge and Preparedness

The WHO’s recent prioritization effort aims to highlight critical gaps in knowledge, data, and preparedness for potential pandemics. Here are key observations:

  • Surveillance systems: The need for improved global disease surveillance to detect outbreaks early.
  • Research funding: Increased investment in research focused on emerging pathogens and vaccine development.
  • Public health infrastructure: Strengthening health systems globally to respond effectively to outbreaks.
  • Community engagement: Raising public awareness about potential threats and prevention strategies.

Benefits of Preparedness and Proactive Measures

Understanding and preparing for potential pandemics can yield a variety of benefits:

  • Reduced mortality: By preventing or mitigating pandemics, the number of deaths can be substantially lowered.
  • Economic stability: Strong public health measures can prevent economic disruptions associated with pandemic outbreaks.
  • Health system resilience: Investments made for pandemic preparedness can enhance the overall efficiency of health systems.
  • Global cooperation: Addressing pandemics fosters international collaboration and knowledge sharing.

Case Studies on Pandemic Preparedness

To illustrate the importance of pandemic preparedness, consider the case studies of various countries:

  • South Korea: An effective response during the MERS outbreak in 2015, utilizing extensive testing and contact tracing.
  • New Zealand: Known for its rapid and effective quarantine measures during the Covid-19 pandemic, leading to decreased infection rates.
  • Germany: Implemented efficient testing and treatment protocols that yielded one of the lowest Covid-19 mortality rates in Europe.

Practical Tips for Individuals

Everyone can contribute to mitigating potential pandemic threats through proactive steps:

  • Maintain hygiene: Regular hand washing and use of sanitizers can help prevent disease transmission.
  • Vaccination: Stay updated on vaccinations for preventable diseases.
  • Stay informed: Keeping abreast of health advisories and news related to emerging pathogens.
  • Spread awareness: Educate family and friends on the importance of pandemic preparedness.

As the world faces a myriad of potential health threats, understanding the WHO’s updated priority pathogen list provides an essential framework for global preparedness and the proactive measures necessary to protect public health.

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