Last week, the US special envoy, Amos Hochstein, offered Israel and Lebanon a new compromise by the United States on the issue of the exact line along which the maritime borders between the two countries will pass in the Mediterranean. Optimism is increasing among the political level in Israel and its security apparatus about the possibility of reaching a final settlement of the dispute in the near future. In the background of the progress stand Israel’s preparations before drilling for gas in the Karish field, and Hezbollah’s threats to disrupt the drilling if an agreement is not reached.
The compromise proposal centers on “Line 23”, which is the middle line between Lebanon’s request to the south regarding the positioning of the border and the Israeli line more north. The proposed line is closer to Lebanon’s request. In the indirect contacts, Israel requested that the change in favor of Lebanon be made in the depth of the region rather than near the shore, in order to provide a greater defense field from potential threats from the sea near the shore.
The senior leadership in Israel was ready to make concessions, considering that the most important achievement would be stabilizing relations between the two sides at sea and preventing the possibility of a security escalation against this background in the future. Israel was determined to keep the Karish tank within its borders, and this is what will happen according to the American proposal. And it was ready to show greater generosity towards Lebanon in determining the course of the border in the area of the “Qana” field, northeast of Karish, assuming that the start of excavations would help achieve long-term stability, as was formulated by Defense Minister Benny Gantz at the moment when two rafts will operate in the place. , Israeli and Lebanese, the two countries will have an interest in continuing their activities without interference.
British company Energy could have started excavations at Karish this month. Now, according to the Ministry of Energy’s statement, it appears that preliminary checks will begin in the reservoir next week, but they will include pumping gas into a channel from the shore to the reservoir and not the other way around. The drilling itself will apparently begin next month.
Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah threatened in the summer months to strike Israeli excavations on the pretext that Israel was violating Lebanon’s rights to the sea. In July, on various occasions, Hezbollah launched four drones near the tank. These planes were shot down by the Israeli army, and as far as we know, they were not carrying explosive devices, but cameras. The launch of the aircraft was interpreted as sending threatening signals from Hezbollah to Israel.
The protection of the Navy and the Air Force around the gas pontoon increased against the background of events and threats, and the alert was raised in the Northern Command. The security apparatus feared that Hezbollah would use the disputes over the demarcation of the border as a pretext for provocative actions against Israel. However, there were those who believed that Hassan Nasrallah was preoccupied with the war against his credit. According to this account, he knew that the government in Beirut had no choice but to reach an agreement, because the economic situation in Lebanon was frightening and needed exploration in an attempt to improve its situation a little. Nasrallah’s threats, it was said, were aimed at consolidating a conclusion in the awareness of the Lebanese public that reaching an agreement would not have benefited all the Lebanese except thanks to the steadfastness of the Shiite organization against Israel. Nasrallah presents his organization as the protector of Lebanon at a time when the country is widely criticized for keeping weapons and not under the command of the Lebanese army.
In his last speech over the weekend, Nasrallah returned to the issue of maritime borders. Israel considered the wording of his rhetoric this time more moderate, and left a gap to an agreement in the near future. Nasrallah reiterated that the party’s red lines are the date for Israel to start production, if no agreement is reached. But he added that “Hezbollah” gives an opportunity to progress. The security apparatus said that Nasrallah is aware of Lebanon’s reservations about a military escalation with Israel at the present time, as the economy in Lebanon is going through difficult problems. Iran has so far shown no interest in Hezbollah’s clash with Israel over this issue, and has not encouraged Nasrallah to take hostile steps.
Israel does not rule out the possibility that Hezbollah will provoke another provocation, but it has estimated that the possibility of that is declining against the background of the new, more generous compromise proposal for Lebanon, which the Americans conveyed, and in view of the increasing dependence of the government in Beirut on gas discoveries in the hope of achieving an improvement in the economy .
The United States recently made efforts to try to engage Qatar in gas exploration on the Lebanese side of the maritime border. Originally, the concession was given to three companies, Italian, French and Russian. But the Russian company was taken out of the deal due to the sanctions imposed by the international community on Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine. The hope now is that Qatar’s accession will increase the flow of funds for exploration, and the economic potential on the part of the Lebanese.
Israel continues its efforts to persuade the international community to reach an agreement on the issue of maritime borders and to calm Hezbollah so that exceptional events do not develop in the north. In the talks with representatives of foreign countries, Israel emphasized the issue of maritime borders and new violations of the status quo along the border by Hezbollah, on top of which was the deployment of more than twenty observation posts near Israeli territory. On the other hand, Israeli spokesmen have recently devoted less time to communications about Hezbollah’s missile accuracy project, and to the party’s efforts to set up production sites in Lebanon to install precision guidance devices on its old rockets.
by: Amos Harel
Ha’aretz 19/9/2022