2023-06-01 02:24:00
LIB Guide Daily Strategy
US interest rates remain volatile
The SET is expected to be “sideways” today in a range of 1520-1545 points. Some FED committee members came out to support the US June interest rate to help ease while the debt ceiling issue this morning still needs to be closely monitored. Domestically, the MPC rises. interest rate of 0.25% as expected, the Thai economy is still recovering led by tourism and consumption Today we recommend collecting “CPALL”.
Overall US interest rates remain volatile. Although the number of US job openings is higher than expected. which reflects the possibility of increasing interest rates. But it refutes statements by some Fed committee members (Philip Jefferson Fed Governor and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harp) in support of keeping rates unchanged for June. As a result, the FED Watch tool reduced the chances of a US interest rate hike this time to only 26%. As for the US debt ceiling, we still have to closely follow the vote this morning.
As for Thailand, yesterday the MPC unanimously resolved raised the policy rate +0.25% to 2.0%, as expected, as the Thai economy was expected to expand gradually. Headline inflation declined as pressure on electricity and oil gradually eased. But core inflation is still high compared to the past.
The MPC maintains its GDP forecast for 2023-24 at +3.6% and +3.8%, respectively, supported by the recovery in tourism and consumption. By adjusting the number of foreign tourists this year to 29 million from the previous estimate of 28 million, including adjusting private consumption this year +4.4% from the previous estimate of 4.0%, while product exports are expected to recover gradually. This year’s current account balance is expected to be a surplus of $6 billion. Better than the original expectation of a surplus of $ 4 billion, although the MPC has not signaled to hold interest rates in the next period. But the overall picture of the Thai economy continues to recover. therefore focusing on groups that are still important drivers such as tourism, retail, food, banking, finance, etc.
Daily Pick : CPALL
Strategic target price (THB) 74.00
2Q23 earnings to grow +yy driven by growing consumption Hot weather boosts beverage sales combined with the reduced cost of electricity per unit The tourism sector continues to expand Including money flowing during the election
As for 2H23, there is still positive momentum from lower interest expenses for Lotus following refinancing in 2Q23.
Eyes On
01 Jun Thai & US Manufacturing PMI, Employment
Private Sector US, ISM Manufacturing US,
US Unemployment Claims, Eurozone CPI
02 Jun Nonfarm Employment US
Wichit Arayaphisit
Fundamental Securities Investment Analyst #44799
[email protected]
1685589121
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